PKK should do ‘whatever it takes’ to provoke Turkey to invade Northern Iraq
Introduction
It is not that I am in favour of the following scenario; it’s more that I take a technical aproach to (my view of) the situation regarding the Turkish Kurds and try to develop a plausible scenario from the viewpoint/interest of the PKK.
Zanshin Post
Policy Claim
Given the vision of a Kurdistan state, PKK should do ‘whatever it takes’ to provoke
See related causal loop diagram: OEI - Middle East — Turkey, Iraq, and the Kurds
If
- Turkey invades Northern Iraq
then
- Participation of Kurds in army of Iraq will decrease
- Political support of the Kurds for
Iraq government will decrease
This will increase the chance that
- The current regime in Iraq will collapse
Which might possible lead to the situation that
-
Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions
Which could well be an important step towards the
- Realization of Kurdistan
End of Policy Claim
This is a rather strait forward scenario / policy claim / strategy. However, it gets more interesting if one looks at the other factors ….