Integral Dynamics

Introduction

It is not that I am in favour of the following scenario; it’s more that I take a technical aproach to (my view of)  the situation regarding the Turkish Kurds and try to develop a plausible scenario from the viewpoint/interest of the PKK.

Zanshin Post

Policy Claim 

Given the vision of a Kurdistan state, PKK should do ‘whatever it takes’ to provoke Turkey to invade Northern Iraq

See related causal loop diagram: OEI - Middle East — Turkey, Iraq, and the Kurds

If 

• Turkey invades Northern Iraq

then

• Participation of Kurds in army of Iraq will decrease
• Political support of the Kurds for Iraq government will decrease 

This will increase the chance that

• The current regime in Iraq will collapse 

Which might possible lead to the situation that 

Which could well be an important step towards the

• Realization of Kurdistan

End of Policy Claim

This is a rather strait forward scenario / policy claim / strategy. However, it gets more interesting if one looks at the other factors ….

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Yesterday I posted Open-Ended Issues — Middle East — v 1.0 — Part 1 (Technical). Today I added a new Open-Ended Issue, “Turkey will invade - the Kurdish region of - Iraq“.

My IDEA (Integral Dynamics’ Estimated Assessment) about this potential event is:

Probability of “Turkey will invade - the Kurdish region of - Iraq“: Unlikely, with a Moderate Confidence.

Impact on “The current regime in Iraq will collapse“: Weak, with a Moderate Confidence.

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Introduction

Rather optimistic I started to ‘write’ this article about events and relations between events using a kind of causal loop model.

My overall aim was to make it easier to create better and more transparant understanding of Key Global Issues (KGIs) we are confronted with.

I decided on a first attempt with two main KGIs in the Middle East: Iran and Iraq. First I developed a (tentative) list of Open-Ended Issues (possible events). Then I developed the causal loop model. And then I wanted to start to discuss the model content-wise, but I realized I first had to explain to the readers how to read this kind of causal loops diagrams.

It means that this article turned out to be rather technical; I will write a second article to really discuss the content.

Zanshin Post

ps. Because this is still very experimental to me, I hope you will give some feedback on this ‘project’.

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Open-Ended Issues in the Middle East

There are many Open-Ended Issues in the Middle East.

To name a few (focusing om Iran and Iraq):

1. Iran is a state sponsor of terror
2. Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan
3. Iran is building nuclear weapons
4. Iran will freeze it’s uranium enrichment programme
5. The United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran
6. The current regime in Iran will collapse
7. Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq
8. Iran is arming insurgents in Iraq
9. Iran will attack Israel
10. Israel will attack Iran
11. The United States will act diplomatically with Iran
12. The United States will act military against Iran
13. Lawmakers in Iraq will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law)
14. The United States will withdraw from Iraq
15. The current regime in Iraq will collapse
16. Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions
17. Al Qaeda will take over Iraq
18. Iran will take over Iraq
19. Turkey will invade - the Kurdish region of - Iraq

Presented in a causal-loops diagram, it looks like this,

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