Integral Dynamics

Introduction

It is not that I am in favour of the following scenario; it’s more that I take a technical aproach to (my view of)  the situation regarding the Turkish Kurds and try to develop a plausible scenario from the viewpoint/interest of the PKK.

Zanshin Post

Policy Claim 

Given the vision of a Kurdistan state, PKK should do ‘whatever it takes’ to provoke Turkey to invade Northern Iraq

See related causal loop diagram: OEI - Middle East — Turkey, Iraq, and the Kurds

If 

• Turkey invades Northern Iraq

then

• Participation of Kurds in army of Iraq will decrease
• Political support of the Kurds for Iraq government will decrease 

This will increase the chance that

• The current regime in Iraq will collapse 

Which might possible lead to the situation that 

Which could well be an important step towards the

• Realization of Kurdistan

End of Policy Claim

This is a rather strait forward scenario / policy claim / strategy. However, it gets more interesting if one looks at the other factors ….

For instance,

 If PKK executes this strategy,

• what will the US do in curbing the activities of the PKK?

and at the same time

• how much pressure will the US put on the Turkish government to restrain from invading Northern Iraq?

And are the Kurdish acting as ‘one’, meaning, is the PKK capable of coordinating their strategy with the Iraqi Kurds,

For instance, look at the causal loop diagram Iran & Iraq (link),

if the Iraqi Kurds can frustrate the benchmarks as defined by the US, particularly, passing the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law) it will be less attractive and at the same time more difficult for the US to stay in Iraq.

And withdrawing of the US from Iraq would again increase the change of

• The current regime in Iraq will collapse

Contra-Indication for this Policy Claim

If the current regime in Iraq colapse for ‘other’ reasons, it is probably best that the PKK keeps quiet and give the Iraqi Kurds a chance to establish their independent region without interference of Turkey, etc.