Integral Dynamics

Newsweek International interviewed French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, freshly returned from a visit to Baghdad (link).

The following quote got the most attention in the press,

Yes. I just had Condoleezza on the phone 10 or 15 minutes ago, and I told her, “Listen, he’s [= Nuri al-Maliki] got to be replaced.”

Nuri al-Maliki was not very pleased with this remark. 

But I would ike to focus on two other quotes from the interview,

Political matters are a history of settling scores among the big families and the big parties [of Iraq]. That’s what it’s like there. They’ve had 6,000 years of violence. So, finally, the daily death toll in Baghdad and in the country doesn’t interest them so much. And if you don’t understand that, you don’t understand anything. That’s one of the mistakes the Americans made. They understood nothing about what has happened in the country over such a long period of time.

Politics means settling scores among the big families and the big parties. That is quite different from what the United States hoped for: politicians fighting for a united Iraq.

And the next quote of  Kouchner is also illustrative of the tail wagging the dog.

They’re [= Kurdish leaders] in Baghdad, and that’s really something. These are people I’ve known for 30 years, who were in the mountains fighting for independence, and now they’re defending unity as Iraqi nationalists. That’s amazing. It’s very promising and at the same time stunning.

Kouchner is stunned that the Kurdish leaders are in Baghdad in support of Nuri al-Maliki’s government.

May be it is stunning but it is also very pragmatic, strategically speaking. Give sufficient support to the central government to keep it alive but not enough to make it strong.

In the mean time, set everything in place for an, if not formal then at least practical, autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq.

The Kurdish leaders probably do realize that going to fast in the direction of a semi-autonomous region would incite Turkey and possibly the United States to invade and attack the Kurdish region.

And while the big families and big parties are settling their scores and while the Kurds are creating their semi-autonomous region, the United States force is giving their lives to buy times for the Iraqi politicians to … what was it again?

And the daily death toll (of U.S. and Iraqi people) doesn’t interest them so much.

I wonder how this will reported by David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker in their report to U.S. Congress

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs

• Iraqi Kurds seek independence, with indicators: High Impact / Undesirable; Almost certainly.
• Iraqi Kurds support political Iraq’s central government, with indicators: High Impact / Desirable; Even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor …

(more…)

Guardin featured an AP story, Draft Report Logs Bleak Outlook for Iran (link).

A change in the Tehran regime appears unlikely any time soon despite growing public anger over the country’s economic woes. — draft report National Intelligence Estimate on Iran

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs

• Iran’s economy is healthy, the indicators change from green, even change to green, unlikely.
• Iran has a stable regime, no change, the indicators stay at: yellow, probably, likely.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Newsvine featured a column, Bush Plan to Nuke America, Everything is in Place (link)

The nuking of America by our own President now appears to be a done deal as we approach 9/11 ‘07

And the author, Jimmy Swindell, writes,

Of course I realized at the time this was a rather far fetched scenario

Well, not as far fetched as his name but anyway, far fetchedness is the liberty of columnists creating scenarios.
I realized I had also developed a rather far fetched scenario, called the ‘Dick Cheney end-game’. It was tucked away in some comments at this Newsvine seed, The New York Times Calls For Iraq Withdrawal (link).

The Dick Cheney end-game scenario

First, let start with the ‘regular’ scenario regarding martial law in the US.

1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events

(1.a) a catastrophic emergency; one or more major attacks at U.S soil (dirty bomb, chemical wmd, etc.) by Al Qaeda

(1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf)

(1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US

2. President Bush invokes National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons.

3. No US Presidential elections in 2008

OK, quite reasonable in a ‘War on Terror‘. From this base scenario it is easy to come up with the Dick Cheney end-game.

It is more or less the same as the above one but with a few minor changes.

1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events

(1.a) a very specific catastrophic emergency; President Bush is assasinated by Al-Qaeda or … (Conspiracy Theorists are allowed to fill in the dots)

(1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf)

(1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US

2. VP Dick Cheney becomes POTUS

3. The first act of President Cheney is to nvoke the National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons.

4. No US Presidential elections in 2008

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above scenarios see the following new OEIs

United States proclaims martial law, with indicators: red, even chance
United States cancels 2008 elections, with indicators: red, even chance

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Daily Telegraph / News.com.au reported, Russian carrier jets flying again (link).

RUSSIA has started flying jets again from its only operational aircraft carrier after a two-year break, state-run television reported today in the latest show of the country’s reviving military capability

Previous ’shows’ of Russia’s reviving military capability are,

(2007-08-17) “Today, August 17 at 00:00 hours, 14 strategic bombers took to the air from seven airfields across the country, along with support and refueling aircraft … From today such patrols will be carried out on a regular basis.” — Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (link)

(2007-08-17) Russia and China executed joint military exercises on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (link)

(2007-06-25) “Everybody knows that the Balkans and the Black Sea region were of special interest to us.”
“Russia, with its increasing potentials, is coming back to this region. This is an obvious fact [ … ] This is in the interest of Russia but also of our partners.”
Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of a summit of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) (link)

(2007-04-26) President Vladimir Putin froze Russia’s commitments under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) arms control pact. “It makes no sense for Russia to observe the pact when NATO signatories are ignoring it.
“(NATO countries) are … building up military bases on our borders and, what’s more, they are also planning to station elements of anti-missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.”
“In this connection, I consider it expedient to declare a moratorium on Russia’s implementation of this treaty — in any case, until all countries of the world have ratified and started to strictly implement it.”
– Vladimir Putin, Russian President, in final state-of-nation address (link)

Update: (2007-08-21) 14 Russian jet bombers carried out strategic exersices in international airspace off the coast of Norway. - It is the first time since the end of the cold war that the Russian military activity in the North has been at this high a level. — Per Egil Rygg, Bodoe Wing Commander (link)

Update: (2007-08-17) “RAF Typhoons from Numbers 3(F) and XI Squadrons launched to shadow a Russian Bear-H aircraft over the North Atlantic Ocean.” 

All these events signal one thing: Russia is preparing for war

And a country that is preparing for war needs a strong leader and a united homeland.

Two important issues that need to be taken care of.

The one strong leader in Russia is of course Vladimir Putin. But Putin is nearing the 2nd term (= formaly the last term) of his presidency, the question is: Will he stay or will he go?

And a united homeland is hard to create and even harder to maintain in a democracy.

One solution that takes care of both issues is to rewind democratic measure and replace them with more dictator style measures.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs

• Russia is preparing for war, with indicators: red, probably, likely
• Russia is becoming a police state, with indicators: orange, probably, likely
• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will stay on, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor. (more…)

Reuters reported that Ahmadinejad may visit Iraq (link).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accepted an invitation to visit neighboring Iraq [ … ]

In this Reuters report one can find some intriguing observations,

With Shi’ite Muslims now also in power in Baghdad, ties have strengthened between the two oil-rich states [ … ]

[T]he two old foes, despite their mutual accusations, have a shared interest in ending the violence in Iraq. Iran wants a friendly government running a stable country while a secure Iraq would enable the United States to pull out.

This could give the following scenario,

United States forces are fighting in Iraq to give the central government (ie Nuri al-Maliki) the time to forge stronger ties between Iran and Iraq. Or, in other words, the United States is doing all the work with as a result a stronger position with more influence in the Gulf region, and therefore control of strategical important oil flows, for their old foe Iran (ie. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). Not a happy prospect.

What to do? - from a US perspective

Try to prevent this strengthening of ties between Iran and Iraq.

Difficult enough with both countries having Shi’ite Muslims in power and sharing a mutual interest in cooperation.

If that doesn’t work out, an option could be to leave the ‘management’ of Iraq to Iran and make sure that Iran is doing what the US wants.

This is also not that easy. Two generic options:

A friendly approach. Talk with Iran, help them develop economically and make sure that the flow of oil keeps coming to the West.

The other option is to force Iran in doing things the US way.  Bomb Iran, if necessary with nuclear bombs, and move the troops from Bagdad to Tehran. Again, not very easy and a hard sell to the people of the US / worldwide.

Unless, Iran is that much demonized that global opinion does ‘understand’ why Iran is attacked and approves of it.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs,

• Iran and Iraq will strengthen their ties, with indicators; yellow, even chance
• Iran wants a friendly government running a stable Iraq, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• Iraq secure and stable would enable the United States to pull out, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• United States reporting negative behavior of Iran will increase, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

IPS reported IRAQ: Between the Two Rivers, Lack of Water Kills (link).

The collapse of Iraq’s infrastructure has created a worsening water crisis that is killing untold numbers of Iraqis.

The following causal loop diagram is based on the article and relates the situation to the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Iraq’s people support the government of Iraq, with indicators: green, even chance
• Iraq’s people support the United States military, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq shows satisfying progress of the 18 benchmarks, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq’s government is a stable regime, with indicators: green, remotely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Associated Press reported that Russia Sends Long Bombers Back on Patrol (link).

Two important statements

Russia and China executed war games on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin placed strategic bombers back on long-range patrol.
This is for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Both statements signal a growing tension between the united States and Russia, especially regarding Central Asia.

IDEA of this story resulted in the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Central Asia contains vast hydrocarbon resources, with indicators: yellow, almost certainly
• China’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia increases its military spending, with indicators: orange, almost certainly
• United States‘ influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Associated Press reported, Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks (link)

The son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, had given an interview to the Austria Pers Agency.

Some relevant statements by Gadhafi as reported by AP.

First,

Radical Islam is making deeper inroads into Europe through young, disaffected Muslims who are receptive to the message of militancy.

In a previous post Emigration from the UK was discussed. One of the main reasons for emigration from the UK was immigration of others into the UK; a clear sign that integration of immigrants has not been successful.

This observation is supported by a report of the NYPD which says,

Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially. (link)

The above statement of NYPD is added to the KGI-Monitor as an Open-Ended Issue with indicators: orange, almost certainly.

The second statement of Gadhafi,

Islamic extremists are certain to carry out more terrorist attacks in Europe, and any country that engages itself militarily in Iraq or Afghanistan is a likely target.

This is translated as OEI, Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. with indicators: orange,  almost certainly.

The third statement of Gadhafi,

The situation in Pakistan is very dangerous given the consequences if Islamic extremists take power in the country, which has nuclear weapons.

The OEI, Pakistan is an Islamic state, is changed to, Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state with indicators: red, even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

NY Times reported, U.S. Weighing Terrorist Label for Iran Guards  (link).

The relevant statement,

Bush administration is preparing to declare that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is a foreign terrorist organization, senior administration officials said Tuesday.

IDEA of Impact on Open-Ended Isues

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