Integral Dynamics

Introduction

It is not that I am in favour of the following scenario; it’s more that I take a technical approach to (my view of) the situation regarding Pakistan, president Pervez Musharraf, the US discussion about a unilateral attack on Pakistan and try to develop a plausible scenario from the viewpoint / interest of the United States.

Zanshin Post

Policy Claim

Within the United States there is a discussion going on wether the US should unilateral attack Pakistan to attack Al Qaeda’s global leadership and possibly kill Osama bin Laden.

The United States should be willing to launch strikes against al Qaeda targets in Pakistan if Islamabad took no action, said Barack Obama, U.S. Senator of Illinois, running for the Democratic presidential nomination, last week

Hillary Clinton accused Obama of being naïve and John McCain, U.S. Senator wondered,

“What if a radical Islamic government were to take place because we triggered it with an attack?”

This is a good what-if question. Certainly given the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

As long as Pervez Musharraf is President of Pakistan, the probability of good relations between Pakistan and the United States is almost certainly.  Also meaning that Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons.

But a unilateral attack of the United States on Pakistan could very well weaken Musharraf’s position and lead to a radical Islamic government. Even talking about the possibility of such an attack weakens his position.

That’s why Robert Gates stepped in and ruled out the possibility that the United States would unilaterally attack terrorist targets in Pakistan, including Osama bin Laden, without first discussing any such action with the country’s military ruler.

“I think that our relationship with the Pakistan [president] is such that we would share that information with Musharraf, and he would be delighted to work with us in making that kind of an operation work.“

Sufficient for a quick damage control.

But there is more needed.

(a) It is likely that after the 2008 elections in the United States a Democrat will be elected President of the US. There is an even change that this could be Obama.

(b) Another issue is the position of Musharraf. How long will he be President? And who will be president after him? Who will replace him?

(c) It is rather probably that Al Qaeda’s global leadership and Osama bin Laden are based in Waziristan, Pakistan.

So, for the current US administration, there are three objectives.

1. Take out Al Qaeda’s global leadership / Osama bin Laden as soon as possible.

2. Do not weaken Musharraf’s position, if at all possible.

3. Make sure that a US friendly replacement is available and elected at the moment that Musharraf steps down as president.

4. (And one extra objective / condition.) Do this before the US 2008 elections, this giving the most control on the execution of this scenario and its outcome.

Strategy / scenario 

This leads to the following “Pakistan … Send in the Replacements”  strategy / scenario.

1. Pinpoint the location of Al Qaeda’s global leadership / Osama bin Laden.

2. Unilateral attack Al Qaeda’s global leadership / Osama bin Laden, even if it is in Pakistan.

3. Under great pressure of Pakistani public opinion Musharraf steps down as president of Pakistan.

4. The US friendly replacement is elected as president of Pakistan.

Fine-tuning

Some fine-tuning is possible.

First, one could do the above scenario without the consent of Musharraf, but better would be to convince him it is the best scenario for all involved and give him good financial compensation.

Secondly, it would be nice if the US friendly replacement is seen by the Pakistan people as not so US friendly and as a devout muslim.