IDEA - No Iraq-Turkey pact on separatists
Al Jazeera reported No Iraq-Turkey pact on separatists.
Some relevant statements.
Nuri al-Maliki would not sign an agreement with Turkey to formally commit Iraq to fighting the PKK without first putting it before parliament and his cabinet.
Al-Maliki knows he needs the support of the Kurds of Iraq
“We have agreed to join hands to find deterrent measures to terrorist acts in Iraq, including the PKK [ … ] Efforts will be channelled to bring this to an end and disarm the PKK as a step towards forcing them out of Iraqi soil.”
– Nuri al-Maliki, at a joint news conference with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“We have reached an agreement to spend all efforts to end the presence of the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK in Iraq.”
– Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a joint news conference with Iraqi counterpart Nuri al-Maliki.
Most people there [= the Kurdish region of Erbil in Iraq] did not believe an invasion would actually happen, but would back the PKK against what they see as an oppressive regime, if it did.
– Hoda Abdel Hamid, Al Jazeera, reporting from the Kurdish region of Erbil in Iraq
My estimated assessment of the impact of this information is as follows …
Option: Iraqi Kurds remove (with force if necessary) the PKK from their territory
Likelyhood: Remote
This option is at this moment a long shot. It’s not sure if the leadership of the Iraqi Kurds is even aware of this option, and if so, if they value it as a desirable policy.
See Framing Kurdistan for a more extensive discussion of this option
Option: A cooperative action between Turkey and Iraq
Likelyhood: Unlikely
This option, is according to Recep Tayyip Erdogan (almost) certainly.
However, Nuri al-Maliki understandably stalled this option. He wants to discuss it with his cabinet which almost ceases to excist. And he wants it to put it for the parliament with is at the moment with summer recess.
Option: Turkey invades (unilateral) Northern Iraq
Likelyhood: Even chance
The meeting between Erdogan and al-Maliki has as the effect that Erdogan can tell his constituency’s that the Turkish government is making progress with Iraq and he has put pressure on al-Maliki.
It all depends on the PKK, if they stay low, there is no reason for Turkey to come into action. If they start to provoke the Turksih army the likelyhood could go from even change to (almost) certainly in the blink of an eye.
(See: PKK should do ‘whatever it takes’ to provoke Turkey to invade Northern Iraq )
Option: Do, more or less, nothing
Likelyhood: Probaly, likely
This option is a kind of default option and given the degrees of likelyhood of the other options, most likely.
For all parties involved, Turkey, Iraq, United States and the Iraqi Kurds, this is the preferrable option.
Contra indication: Provocative actions by the PKK.
Option Matrix
Options plotted in the matrix gives the following result.
