IDEA - U.S. Weighing Terrorist Label for Iran Guards
NY Times reported, U.S. Weighing Terrorist Label for Iran Guards (link).
The relevant statement,
Bush administration is preparing to declare that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is a foreign terrorist organization, senior administration officials said Tuesday.
IDEA of Impact on Open-Ended Isues
| United States will act diplomatically with Iran | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
| New Estimated Assessment | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| Old | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
+++
| United States will act military against Iran | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
| New Estimated Assessment | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| Old | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
+++
| United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
| New Estimated Assessment | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| Old | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Qaeda’s global leadership is based in Waziristan, Pakistan | |||||
| Al-Qaeda is present in Iraq | |||||
| Al-Qaeda will take over Iraq | |||||
| Global economy is healthy | |||||
| Global oil demand is strong | |||||
| Global oil prices will rise | |||||
| Global oil supply will drop | |||||
| Hezbollah will attack Israel | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for Iraq government | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for U.S. government | |||||
| Iran has a stable regime | |||||
| Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan | |||||
| Iran is building nuclear weapons | |||||
| Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq | |||||
| Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable | |||||
| Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve | |||||
| Iran will attack Israel | |||||
| Iran will freeze it’s uranium enrichment programme | |||||
| Iran will take over Iraq | |||||
| Iran’s economy is healthy | |||||
| Iraq could end up in a regional war | |||||
| Iraq’s government is a stable regime | |||||
| Iraq’s government is supported political by the Kurds | |||||
| Iraq lawmakers will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law” | |||||
| Iraq’s political reconcilation on national level improves | |||||
| Iraq restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| Iraq’s security improving | |||||
| Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds participate in army of Iraq | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds seek independence | |||||
| Israel will attack Iran | |||||
| Long term stability of Persian Gulf | |||||
| Pakistan is an Islamic state | |||||
| Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons | |||||
| Pakistan’s public opinion is positive about the United States and Musharraf | |||||
| Pakistan’s president is Pervez Musharraf | |||||
| Realization of Kurdistan | |||||
| Saudi Arabia is arming Sunni militias in Iraq | |||||
| Syria allows suicide bombers to cross into Iraq | |||||
| Turkey will invade Iraq | |||||
| Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attack Iraq | |||||
| Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq | |||||
| United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran | |||||
| United States and Pakistan have a good relationship | |||||
| United States’ army is under increasing stress | |||||
| United States’ cost of the war in Iraq will increase | |||||
| United States’ domestic debate over war in Iraq | |||||
| United States economy is healthy | |||||
| United States military casualties will increase | |||||
| United States president George W. Bush determination to continue the war | |||||
| United States restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| United States will stay involved with Iraq | |||||
| United States will act diplomatically with Iran | |||||
| United States will act military against Iran | |||||
| United States will (unilaterally) attack terrorist targets in Pakistan | |||||
| Vision of Kurdistan | |||||
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
++++
Probability of events
How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)
judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.
Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly
We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.
| Likelyhood Indication | Description |
|---|---|
| Remote | text remote |
| Unlikely | text Unlikely |
| Even Chance | text Even Chance |
| Probably, Likely | text Probably, Likely |
| Almost certainly | text Almost certainly |
| Color Indication | Description |
|---|---|
| Green | text green |
| Yellow | text yellow |
| Orange | text orange |
| Red | text red |