Integral Dynamics

August 17, 2007

IDEA - Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks

Associated Press reported, Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks (link)

The son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, had given an interview to the Austria Pers Agency.

Some relevant statements by Gadhafi as reported by AP.

First,

Radical Islam is making deeper inroads into Europe through young, disaffected Muslims who are receptive to the message of militancy.

In a previous post Emigration from the UK was discussed. One of the main reasons for emigration from the UK was immigration of others into the UK; a clear sign that integration of immigrants has not been successful.

This observation is supported by a report of the NYPD which says,

Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially. (link)

The above statement of NYPD is added to the KGI-Monitor as an Open-Ended Issue with indicators: orange, almost certainly.

The second statement of Gadhafi,

Islamic extremists are certain to carry out more terrorist attacks in Europe, and any country that engages itself militarily in Iraq or Afghanistan is a likely target.

This is translated as OEI, Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. with indicators: orange,  almost certainly.

The third statement of Gadhafi,

The situation in Pakistan is very dangerous given the consequences if Islamic extremists take power in the country, which has nuclear weapons.

The OEI, Pakistan is an Islamic state, is changed to, Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state with indicators: red, even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

Open-Ended Issue Remote Unlikely Even
Chance
Probably,
Likely
Almost
certainly
Al-Qaeda’s global leadership is based in Waziristan, Pakistan          
Al-Qaeda is present in Iraq          
Al-Qaeda will take over Iraq          
Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially          
Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists      
Global economy is healthy          
Global oil demand is strong          
Global oil prices will rise          
Global oil supply will drop          
Hezbollah will attack Israel          
Importance of Kurds’ support for Iraq government          
Importance of Kurds’ support for U.S. government          
Iran has a stable regime          
Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan          
Iran is building nuclear weapons          
Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq          
Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable          
Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve          
Iran will attack Israel          
Iran will freeze it’s uranium enrichment programme          
Iran will take over Iraq          
Iran’s economy is healthy          
Iraq could end up in a regional war          
Iraq’s government is a stable regime          
Iraq’s government is supported political by the Kurds          
Iraq lawmakers will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law”          
Iraq’s political reconcilation on national level improves          
Iraq restrains PKK’s activities          
Iraq’s security improving          
Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions          
Iraqi Kurds participate in army of Iraq          
Iraqi Kurds seek independence          
Israel will attack Iran          
Israel will attack Syria          
Long term stability of Persian Gulf          
Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state          
Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons          
Pakistan’s public opinion is positive about the United States and Musharraf          
Pakistan’s president is Pervez Musharraf          
Realization of Kurdistan          
Saudi Arabia is arming Sunni militias in Iraq          
Syria allows suicide bombers to cross into Iraq          
Syria is subject to Iranian control          
Turkey`s ruling AKP party has strong connections to the “gradualist” wing of the Muslim Brotherhood          
Turkey`s ruling AKP party is a Hamas sympathizer          
Turkey will invade Iraq          
Turkey will join EU          
Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attack Iraq          
Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq          
United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran          
United States and Pakistan have a good relationship          
United States’ army is under increasing stress          
United States’ cost of the war in Iraq will increase          
United States’ domestic debate over war in Iraq          
United States economy is healthy          
United States military casualties will increase          
United States president George W. Bush determination to continue the war          
United States restrains PKK’s activities          
United States will stay involved with Iraq          
United States will act diplomatically with Iran          
United States will act military against Iran          
United States will act military against Syria          
United States will (unilaterally) attack terrorist targets in Pakistan          
Vision of Kurdistan          
Open-Ended Issue Remote Unlikely Even
Chance
Probably,
Likely
Almost
certainly

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