IDEA - Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks
Associated Press reported, Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks (link)
The son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, had given an interview to the Austria Pers Agency.
Some relevant statements by Gadhafi as reported by AP.
First,
Radical Islam is making deeper inroads into Europe through young, disaffected Muslims who are receptive to the message of militancy.
In a previous post Emigration from the UK was discussed. One of the main reasons for emigration from the UK was immigration of others into the UK; a clear sign that integration of immigrants has not been successful.
This observation is supported by a report of the NYPD which says,
Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially. (link)
The above statement of NYPD is added to the KGI-Monitor as an Open-Ended Issue with indicators: orange, almost certainly.
The second statement of Gadhafi,
Islamic extremists are certain to carry out more terrorist attacks in Europe, and any country that engages itself militarily in Iraq or Afghanistan is a likely target.
This is translated as OEI, Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. with indicators: orange, almost certainly.
The third statement of Gadhafi,
The situation in Pakistan is very dangerous given the consequences if Islamic extremists take power in the country, which has nuclear weapons.
The OEI, Pakistan is an Islamic state, is changed to, Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state with indicators: red, even chance.
This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Qaeda’s global leadership is based in Waziristan, Pakistan | |||||
| Al-Qaeda is present in Iraq | |||||
| Al-Qaeda will take over Iraq | |||||
| Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially | |||||
| Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists | > | ||||
| Global economy is healthy | |||||
| Global oil demand is strong | |||||
| Global oil prices will rise | |||||
| Global oil supply will drop | |||||
| Hezbollah will attack Israel | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for Iraq government | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for U.S. government | |||||
| Iran has a stable regime | |||||
| Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan | |||||
| Iran is building nuclear weapons | |||||
| Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq | |||||
| Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable | |||||
| Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve | |||||
| Iran will attack Israel | |||||
| Iran will freeze it’s uranium enrichment programme | |||||
| Iran will take over Iraq | |||||
| Iran’s economy is healthy | |||||
| Iraq could end up in a regional war | |||||
| Iraq’s government is a stable regime | |||||
| Iraq’s government is supported political by the Kurds | |||||
| Iraq lawmakers will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law” | |||||
| Iraq’s political reconcilation on national level improves | |||||
| Iraq restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| Iraq’s security improving | |||||
| Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds participate in army of Iraq | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds seek independence | |||||
| Israel will attack Iran | |||||
| Israel will attack Syria | |||||
| Long term stability of Persian Gulf | |||||
| Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state | |||||
| Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons | |||||
| Pakistan’s public opinion is positive about the United States and Musharraf | |||||
| Pakistan’s president is Pervez Musharraf | |||||
| Realization of Kurdistan | |||||
| Saudi Arabia is arming Sunni militias in Iraq | |||||
| Syria allows suicide bombers to cross into Iraq | |||||
| Syria is subject to Iranian control | |||||
| Turkey`s ruling AKP party has strong connections to the “gradualist” wing of the Muslim Brotherhood | |||||
| Turkey`s ruling AKP party is a Hamas sympathizer | |||||
| Turkey will invade Iraq | |||||
| Turkey will join EU | |||||
| Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attack Iraq | |||||
| Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq | |||||
| United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran | |||||
| United States and Pakistan have a good relationship | |||||
| United States’ army is under increasing stress | |||||
| United States’ cost of the war in Iraq will increase | |||||
| United States’ domestic debate over war in Iraq | |||||
| United States economy is healthy | |||||
| United States military casualties will increase | |||||
| United States president George W. Bush determination to continue the war | |||||
| United States restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| United States will stay involved with Iraq | |||||
| United States will act diplomatically with Iran | |||||
| United States will act military against Iran | |||||
| United States will act military against Syria | |||||
| United States will (unilaterally) attack terrorist targets in Pakistan | |||||
| Vision of Kurdistan | |||||
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |