Integral Dynamics

Associated Press reported that Russia Sends Long Bombers Back on Patrol (link).

Two important statements

Russia and China executed war games on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin placed strategic bombers back on long-range patrol.
This is for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Both statements signal a growing tension between the united States and Russia, especially regarding Central Asia.

IDEA of this story resulted in the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Central Asia contains vast hydrocarbon resources, with indicators: yellow, almost certainly
• China’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia increases its military spending, with indicators: orange, almost certainly
• United States‘ influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

Probability of events

How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)

judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.

Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly

We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.