Integral Dynamics

IPS reported IRAQ: Between the Two Rivers, Lack of Water Kills (link).

The collapse of Iraq’s infrastructure has created a worsening water crisis that is killing untold numbers of Iraqis.

The following causal loop diagram is based on the article and relates the situation to the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Iraq’s people support the government of Iraq, with indicators: green, even chance
• Iraq’s people support the United States military, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq shows satisfying progress of the 18 benchmarks, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq’s government is a stable regime, with indicators: green, remotely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

Probability of events

How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)

judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.

Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly

We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.