Integral Dynamics

Reuters reported that Ahmadinejad may visit Iraq (link).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accepted an invitation to visit neighboring Iraq [ … ]

In this Reuters report one can find some intriguing observations,

With Shi’ite Muslims now also in power in Baghdad, ties have strengthened between the two oil-rich states [ … ]

[T]he two old foes, despite their mutual accusations, have a shared interest in ending the violence in Iraq. Iran wants a friendly government running a stable country while a secure Iraq would enable the United States to pull out.

This could give the following scenario,

United States forces are fighting in Iraq to give the central government (ie Nuri al-Maliki) the time to forge stronger ties between Iran and Iraq. Or, in other words, the United States is doing all the work with as a result a stronger position with more influence in the Gulf region, and therefore control of strategical important oil flows, for their old foe Iran (ie. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). Not a happy prospect.

What to do? - from a US perspective

Try to prevent this strengthening of ties between Iran and Iraq.

Difficult enough with both countries having Shi’ite Muslims in power and sharing a mutual interest in cooperation.

If that doesn’t work out, an option could be to leave the ‘management’ of Iraq to Iran and make sure that Iran is doing what the US wants.

This is also not that easy. Two generic options:

A friendly approach. Talk with Iran, help them develop economically and make sure that the flow of oil keeps coming to the West.

The other option is to force Iran in doing things the US way.  Bomb Iran, if necessary with nuclear bombs, and move the troops from Bagdad to Tehran. Again, not very easy and a hard sell to the people of the US / worldwide.

Unless, Iran is that much demonized that global opinion does ‘understand’ why Iran is attacked and approves of it.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs,

• Iran and Iraq will strengthen their ties, with indicators; yellow, even chance
• Iran wants a friendly government running a stable Iraq, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• Iraq secure and stable would enable the United States to pull out, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• United States reporting negative behavior of Iran will increase, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

Probability of events

How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)

judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.

Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly

We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.