Integral Dynamics

Daily Telegraph / News.com.au reported, Russian carrier jets flying again (link).

RUSSIA has started flying jets again from its only operational aircraft carrier after a two-year break, state-run television reported today in the latest show of the country’s reviving military capability

Previous ’shows’ of Russia’s reviving military capability are,

(2007-08-17) “Today, August 17 at 00:00 hours, 14 strategic bombers took to the air from seven airfields across the country, along with support and refueling aircraft … From today such patrols will be carried out on a regular basis.” — Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (link)

(2007-08-17) Russia and China executed joint military exercises on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (link)

(2007-06-25) “Everybody knows that the Balkans and the Black Sea region were of special interest to us.”
“Russia, with its increasing potentials, is coming back to this region. This is an obvious fact [ … ] This is in the interest of Russia but also of our partners.”
Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of a summit of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) (link)

(2007-04-26) President Vladimir Putin froze Russia’s commitments under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) arms control pact. “It makes no sense for Russia to observe the pact when NATO signatories are ignoring it.
“(NATO countries) are … building up military bases on our borders and, what’s more, they are also planning to station elements of anti-missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.”
“In this connection, I consider it expedient to declare a moratorium on Russia’s implementation of this treaty — in any case, until all countries of the world have ratified and started to strictly implement it.”
– Vladimir Putin, Russian President, in final state-of-nation address (link)

Update: (2007-08-21) 14 Russian jet bombers carried out strategic exersices in international airspace off the coast of Norway. - It is the first time since the end of the cold war that the Russian military activity in the North has been at this high a level. — Per Egil Rygg, Bodoe Wing Commander (link)

Update: (2007-08-17) “RAF Typhoons from Numbers 3(F) and XI Squadrons launched to shadow a Russian Bear-H aircraft over the North Atlantic Ocean.” 

All these events signal one thing: Russia is preparing for war

And a country that is preparing for war needs a strong leader and a united homeland.

Two important issues that need to be taken care of.

The one strong leader in Russia is of course Vladimir Putin. But Putin is nearing the 2nd term (= formaly the last term) of his presidency, the question is: Will he stay or will he go?

And a united homeland is hard to create and even harder to maintain in a democracy.

One solution that takes care of both issues is to rewind democratic measure and replace them with more dictator style measures.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs

• Russia is preparing for war, with indicators: red, probably, likely
• Russia is becoming a police state, with indicators: orange, probably, likely
• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will stay on, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

Probability of events

How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)

judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.

Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly

We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.