IDEA - Draft Report Logs Bleak Outlook for Iran
Guardin featured an AP story, Draft Report Logs Bleak Outlook for Iran (link).
A change in the Tehran regime appears unlikely any time soon despite growing public anger over the country’s economic woes. — draft report National Intelligence Estimate on Iran
IDEA of Open-Ended Issues
Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs
- Iran’s economy is healthy, the indicators change from green, even change to green, unlikely.
- Iran has a stable regime, no change, the indicators stay at: yellow, probably, likely.
This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Qaeda’s global leadership is based in Waziristan, Pakistan | |||||
| Al-Qaeda is present in Iraq | |||||
| Al-Qaeda will take over Iraq | |||||
| Central Asia contains vast hydrocarbon resources | |||||
| China’s influence in Central Asia grows | |||||
| Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially | |||||
| Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists | |||||
| Global economy is healthy | |||||
| Global oil demand is strong | |||||
| Global oil prices will rise | |||||
| Global oil supply will drop | |||||
| Hezbollah will attack Israel | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for Iraq government | |||||
| Importance of Kurds’ support for U.S. government | |||||
| Iran and Iraq will strengthen their ties | |||||
| Iran has a stable regime | |||||
| Iran is a state sponsor of terror | |||||
| Iran is able to restrain armed Shiite groups in Iraq | |||||
| Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan | |||||
| Iran is building nuclear weapons | |||||
| Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq | |||||
| Iran is planning / backing terrorist strike on Europe | |||||
| Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable | |||||
| Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve | |||||
| Iran supports Hamas | |||||
| Iran supports Hezbollah | |||||
| Iran wants a friendly government running a stable Iraq | |||||
| Iran wants the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to succeed | |||||
| Iran will attack Israel | |||||
| Iran will freeze it’s uranium enrichment programme | |||||
| Iran will take over Iraq | |||||
| Iran’s economy is healthy | |||||
| Iraq could end up in a regional war | |||||
| Iraq’s government is a stable regime | |||||
| Iraq’s government is supported political by the Kurds | |||||
| Iraq lawmakers will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law” | |||||
| Iraq’s people support the government of Iraq | |||||
| Iraq’s people support the United States military | |||||
| Iraq’s political reconcilation on national level improves | |||||
| Iraq restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| Iraq secure and stable would enable the United States to pull out | |||||
| Iraq’s security improving | |||||
| Iraq shows satisfying progress of the 18 benchmarks | |||||
| Iraq will split up into three ethnic/religious regions | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds participate in army of Iraq | |||||
| Iraqi Kurds seek independence | |||||
| Israel will attack Iran | |||||
| Israel will attack Syria | |||||
| Long term stability of Persian Gulf | |||||
| Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state | |||||
| Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons | |||||
| Pakistan’s public opinion is positive about the United States and Musharraf | |||||
| Pakistan’s president is Pervez Musharraf | |||||
| Realization of Kurdistan | |||||
| Russia increases its military spending | |||||
| Russia’s influence in Central Asia grows | |||||
| Russia is becoming a police state | |||||
| Russia is preparing for war | |||||
| Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will stay on | |||||
| Saudi Arabia is arming Sunni militias in Iraq | |||||
| Syria allows suicide bombers to cross into Iraq | |||||
| Syria is subject to Iranian control | |||||
| Turkey is one of Israel’s few allies | |||||
| Turkey`s ruling AKP party has strong connections to the “gradualist” wing of the Muslim Brotherhood | |||||
| Turkey`s ruling AKP party is a Hamas sympathizer | |||||
| Turkey will invade Iraq | |||||
| Turkey will join EU | |||||
| Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attack Iraq | |||||
| Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq | |||||
| United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran | |||||
| United States and Pakistan have a good relationship | |||||
| United States’ army is under increasing stress | |||||
| United States cancels 2008 elections | |||||
| United States’ cost of the war in Iraq will increase | |||||
| United States’ domestic debate over war in Iraq | |||||
| United States economy is healthy | |||||
| United States’ influence in Central Asia grows | |||||
| United States military casualties will increase | |||||
| United States president George W. Bush determination to continue the war | |||||
| United States proclaims martial law | |||||
| United States reporting negative behavior of Iran will increase | |||||
| United States restrains PKK’s activities | |||||
| United States will stay involved with Iraq | |||||
| United States will act diplomatically with Iran | |||||
| United States will act military against Iran | |||||
| United States will act military against Syria | |||||
| United States will (unilaterally) attack terrorist targets in Pakistan | |||||
| Vision of Kurdistan | |||||
| Open-Ended Issue | Remote | Unlikely | Even Chance |
Probably, Likely |
Almost certainly |
Probability of events
How to describe the probability of events? We have choosen to use the Estimative Language from the (United States) National Intelligence Esatimates (NEI) The US Intelligence Community also strugles with (source)
judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The [list] below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.
Remote —- Unlikely —- Even chance —- Probably, likely —- Almost certainly
We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.
We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning.
Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.
| Likelyhood Indication | Description |
|---|---|
| Remote | text remote |
| Unlikely | text Unlikely |
| Even Chance | text Even Chance |
| Probably, Likely | text Probably, Likely |
| Almost certainly | text Almost certainly |
| Color Indication | Description |
|---|---|
| Dark Green | Very High Impact / Very Desirable |
| Medium Green | High Impact / Desirable |
| Light Green | Moderate Impact / Desirable, however, there are some positive aspects |
| Yellow | Moderate Impact / Undesirable, however, there are some positive aspects |
| Orange | High Impact / Undesirable |
| Red | Very High Impact / Very undesirable |
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