Framing Kurdistan
PKK in North Iran has become a focal point between Iraq, Turkey and the United States.
Iran with its own share of Kurds and the United Nations are not involved in the resolving of this issue.
There are four options on the table.
(a) Do, more or less, nothing
(b) A covert action as proposed by the United States to behead the PKK from its leadership
(c) A cooperative action between Iraq and Turkey to destroy the PKK camps in Northern Iraq
(d) A full scale (unilateral) invasion of Northern Iraq by Turkey which has a well-trained, well-equipped army of 250,000 near the border
If you cross reference the options with (my view of) the preferences of the parties involved, you get the following result.
I have given the Iraqi Kurds their own column because their interests do not necessary parallel the interests of the Turkish Kurds (the PKK) and those of the central government of Iraq.
It is clear that the first option, Do, more or less, nothing, gets the most votes. This option is preferable from the viewpoint of Iraq, the United States and the Iraqi Kurds.
All the other options would mean an increase of complexity within the Iraq situation with a lot of possble but ‘unintended’ and unwanted consequences.
See the causal map at the end of this article for some possible scenarios.
In the next table, the likelihood of the options are shown.
The option, Do, more or less, nothing is, from a Turkish perspective, out of the questions. Through remarks of Turkish leadership they have committed themselves fully towards action.
The covert action as proposed by the United States to behead the PKK from its leadership isn’t covert anymore. The news leak by Robert Novak meant “such an operation had now become null and void”.
A cooperative action between Turkey and Iraq is almost certainly. It is not a too large investment in terms of money and people; it is not too disruptive for the complex situation in Iraq; it is sufficiently large that it could satisfy the demands of the Turkish people, and it might even work.
But …if this Turkey-Iraq action is not effective and PKK executes some high-profile actions, then the full scale (unilateral) invasion of Northern Iraq moves from likelihood ‘Even Chance’ to the likelihood ‘Almost Certainly’.
And, if Turkey decides for a full scale (unilateral) invasion of Northern Iraq, there is nothing that the other parties can do to prevent that. Except maybe for a full war between Turkey and the United States, but that is most unlikely.