Integral Dynamics

August 6, 2007

Policy Claim: Pakistan … Send in the Replacements

Introduction

It is not that I am in favour of the following scenario; it’s more that I take a technical approach to (my view of) the situation regarding Pakistan, president Pervez Musharraf, the US discussion about a unilateral attack on Pakistan and try to develop a plausible scenario from the viewpoint / interest of the United States.

Zanshin Post

Policy Claim

Within the United States there is a discussion going on wether the US should unilateral attack Pakistan to attack Al Qaeda’s global leadership and possibly kill Osama bin Laden.

The United States should be willing to launch strikes against al Qaeda targets in Pakistan if Islamabad took no action, said Barack Obama, U.S. Senator of Illinois, running for the Democratic presidential nomination, last week

Hillary Clinton accused Obama of being naïve and John McCain, U.S. Senator wondered,

“What if a radical Islamic government were to take place because we triggered it with an attack?”

This is a good what-if question. Certainly given the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

As long as Pervez Musharraf is President of Pakistan, the probability of good relations between Pakistan and the United States is almost certainly.  Also meaning that Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons.

But a unilateral attack of the United States on Pakistan could very well weaken Musharraf’s position and lead to a radical Islamic government. Even talking about the possibility of such an attack weakens his position.

That’s why Robert Gates stepped in and ruled out the possibility that the United States would unilaterally attack terrorist targets in Pakistan, including Osama bin Laden, without first discussing any such action with the country’s military ruler.

I think that our relationship with the Pakistan [president] is such that we would share that information with Musharraf, and he would be delighted to work with us in making that kind of an operation work.

Sufficient for a quick damage control.

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