Integral Dynamics

The big worry for the United States goverment is that Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb.

And this worry sets the context for some of the stories of today.

First Iran

Jerusalem Post reports, US to attack Iran in 8-10 months (link) and Fox News reports, U.S. Officials Begin Crafting Iran Bombing Plan (link) 

The chance of a third round of US sanctions is slim.
Within the US government the feeling here is that the diplomatic approach has run its course without success.

Then, there are the Non-Aligned Movement nations who on Tuesday

rejected any “interference” in Iran’s nuclear transparency deal with U.N. inspectors. (link)

And finally, according to FOX News,

Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in Iran’s nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States — notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council. (link)

The reason Germany gave was,

concern about the damaging effects any further sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy — and also, according to diplomats from other countries.

Not unreasonable,  Japan has the same problems according to Japan Today,

Japanese companies are refraining from new investment in the Middle Eastern country [Iran] under U.N. sanctions over its nuclear development. (link)

There is one big difference between the NAM nations position and Germany’s position as perceived by the US government. Germany’s refusal to sanction a third round,

gave the distinct impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Based on the above, my estimation is that the chance that the United States will attack Iran is almost certainly.

Secondly, Syria

It seems that Syria is or could become the new player on the nuclear block. Thursday 2007-09-06, there was an alleged violation of Syria’s airspace by the Israel Air Force in the early hours (link). Why did Israel attack Syria? Was it a real offensive action or just testing the response of the Syrian military.

Today, Reuters reported, U.S. officials confirm Israel strike on Syria (link). It was a real strike and according to the article it was probably to stop weapons being moved from Iran to Hezbollah. But it could even be worse.

U.S. officials believed Syria may have obtained nuclear material.

Geopolitical this is highly undesirable. The United States won’t tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon and the same goes for Syria.

My estimation is that the chance of Syria having nuclear material is unlikely and therefore also the change that United States will attack Syriais remote.

Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb

The more nuclear stuff is around, the bigger the change that al-Quaeda or some other terorist group obtains it to create a dirty bomb. According to Mohamed ElBaradei, United Nations chief weapons inspector (link),

That’s my greatest concern, a horror scenario. I’m not thinking about a nuclear weapon. No terrorist organization has the necessary know-how or potential to acquire these weapons. But a small, so-called dirty bomb containing radioactive material, detonated somewhere in a major city, could cost human lives and set off massive terror with serious economic consequences. Sometimes I think it’s a miracle that it hasn’t happened yet.

I agree with ElBaradei, in the short term the chance that Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb is even but in the long term it will be more likely.

Interesting is the possible causal relationship between ‘United States bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities’ and ‘Al-Qaeda obtains a dirty bomb’. It could well be that after such a bombing disgrunted Iranians will sell or even will give away nuclear stuff to al-Qaeda operatives.
In that sense the United States seems caught between a rock (Iran has nuclear weapons) and a hard place (Al-Qaeda obtains a dirty bomb). This dilemma would suggest to resolve the nuclear issue with Iran in the least violent way.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs

For the complete Key Globals Issues Monitor click on (more…)