Integral Dynamics

Bloomberg featured a story how ‘Weak Mexican Peso Shows Oil Threatens Growth, Surplus‘ (link).

Our oil reserves have been consistently falling” and the decline is “severely threatening” government finances.
– Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico, in a nationwide television address at the National Palace.

Some tidbits:

• Oil accounts for 40% of the Mexican government’s revenues.
• The oil field Cantarell is crashing, with a 40 percent annual decline rate projected ahead, meaning a couple of years and it’s out.
• The oil field Cantarell alone is practically the whole Mexican oil industry.

And government finances are needed to keep Mexico in a healthy state: a healthy economy, a stable political situation, and good security for all.

Well, the economy isn’t that healthy as the title of Bloomberg article shows.

The political situation is also problematic. One example from many: on Monday, 2007-09-10,

guerrillas from the Popular Revolutionary Army, or EPR, took responsibility for blowing up three Pemex oil and gas pipelines in the energy hub of Veracruz state. It was the third EPR strike against Pemex’s distribution network since July. (link)

And security is certainly problematic with Mexico

locked in a bloody battle with rival cartels fighting over territory and President Felipe Calderon has deployed thousands of troops across the country against traffickers who are often better armed than police. More than 1,000 people have been killed in drug violence in Mexico this year as a three-way war between cartels and the Mexican military spirals to unprecedented levels. (link)

The war on drugs is an expensive war. The Mexican ambassador to the United States said today,

Mexico plans to put up $7 billion, to go with $1.4 billion offered by Washington, to fund a three-year crackdown on its violent drug cartels. (link)

As a result of these problems, Mexicans migrate, legal and illegal, to the United States.

An estimated half-million Mexicans leave their own country for United States every year. (link)

Agreed, Mexico has some problems but to call it a Key Global Issue (KGI) and put it in the same league as the war in Iraq or the nuclear programme controversy with Iran seems a bit strong. it is, unless one looks at the integral dynamics of the situation. (See causal map with this article).

If Mexico’s economy deteriorates, as well as the security and political situation, then the number of Mexicans emigrating, legal or illegal, to the United States will grow strongly.

At a certain level, the United States will try to stop this flow of immigrants and this could possible result in a border war between Mexico and the United States.

And in this scenario we are talking a real KGI.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs

KGI Mexico - Causal Map

Associated Press reported, Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks (link)

The son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, had given an interview to the Austria Pers Agency.

Some relevant statements by Gadhafi as reported by AP.

First,

Radical Islam is making deeper inroads into Europe through young, disaffected Muslims who are receptive to the message of militancy.

In a previous post Emigration from the UK was discussed. One of the main reasons for emigration from the UK was immigration of others into the UK; a clear sign that integration of immigrants has not been successful.

This observation is supported by a report of the NYPD which says,

Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially. (link)

The above statement of NYPD is added to the KGI-Monitor as an Open-Ended Issue with indicators: orange, almost certainly.

The second statement of Gadhafi,

Islamic extremists are certain to carry out more terrorist attacks in Europe, and any country that engages itself militarily in Iraq or Afghanistan is a likely target.

This is translated as OEI, Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. with indicators: orange,  almost certainly.

The third statement of Gadhafi,

The situation in Pakistan is very dangerous given the consequences if Islamic extremists take power in the country, which has nuclear weapons.

The OEI, Pakistan is an Islamic state, is changed to, Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state with indicators: red, even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

In the Daily Express of 2007-08-05 I read the article titled,

4.000 People a week trying to leave UK

in which it was stated that,

BRITAIN is facing a mass exodus of people looking to escape the crime and grime of modern living.

And many cite their reason for wanting to quit as immigration to these shores – and the burden it is placing on their communities and local authorities. The dearth of good schools, spiralling house prices, rising crime and tax increases are also driving people away.

Based on this article I have developed a first pre-concept draft of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD, see at the end of the article) to get a beter view of the integral dynamics. I will improve the model based on feedback and other stories regarding emigration and immigration.

Based on the CLD I developed the following Open-Ended Issues Table with my Integral Dynamics Estimated Assessments of the factors in the CLD.

Looking at the OEI-Table it is quit clear that this is certainly a complex of Open-Ended Issues in need of a Policy Claim. But that’s for a later moment.