Integral Dynamics

AFP and BBC reported that

Turkish warplanes bombed suspected PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) bases in the “regions of Zap, Hakurk and Avasin as well as the Qandil mountains” in northern Iraq.

Estimated Assessment

IDEA-ing of the relevant Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:

Background Timeline

On Sunday, Tehran Times featured the story “Iran says ME tensions will propel oil price to $120” (link).

According to Nasser Sudani, vice chairman of the Energy Committee of Majlis (Iran’s parliament),

Oil price would rise to 120 dollars if tensions in the Middle East continued.

And today, AFP featured the story, “Oil surges above 93 dollars in Asian trade” (link).

According to David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney

“Geopolitical tensions, issues regarding tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels… those sort of factors have added to oil prices.”

The reasons given for the increase of the price of oil are the ‘usual suspects’, like:

Firstly, geopolitical tensions, for instance, caused by

• health of the US economy
• strength of the US dollar
• Middle East tensions, consisting of fear of:
  • Turkey will invade the Kurdish region of Iraq
  • War between United States and Iran
  • United States imposes unilateral new sanctions on Iran
  • United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran
  • Military threats against Syria
  • Military threats against Lebanon

Secondly, an increase of global demand, for instance,

• growing demand of China and India
• cold season demand
• stockpiling by the US and other Western countries
• speculation by traders

Third, a decrease of global production and supply of oil, for instance, caused by

• war in Iraq
• unrest in the oil sector in Nigeria
• hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
• declining oil fields in Mexico
  (see also Key Global Issue: Mexico)
• the impossibility of quickly increasing (on-demand) oil supply.

Also on Monday, Russia Today featured the story, “Oil price: the US$ 100 barrel on its way?” (link) 

According to a forecast of Aleksey Kudrin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia:

“The oil price is very high and this affects political events and some speculations. But if we talk about the longer term of 15 to 20 years, for which we’ve planned the economy, a more realistic price would be between US$ 50 and US$ 60. I say this because if the price goes too high, it will slow down economic growth and also spur the use of alternative energy sources.”

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Translated into most relevant Open-Ended Issues (OEIs) it gives the following table.

Causal Relations

The above factors with there causal relations placed in a causal map gives the following picture.

However, it is good to realize that not all causal relations between the OEIs are of the same order.

For instance, how strong is the impact of geopolitical tensions on the global oil price. Opinions will differ and are highly subjective. According to Big Mike’s Contrarian Investing Blog the relation isn’t that important.

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Updates

2007-10-31: Russia Today article added with implications for the causal loops map.

Newsweek International interviewed French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, freshly returned from a visit to Baghdad (link).

The following quote got the most attention in the press,

Yes. I just had Condoleezza on the phone 10 or 15 minutes ago, and I told her, “Listen, he’s [= Nuri al-Maliki] got to be replaced.”

Nuri al-Maliki was not very pleased with this remark. 

But I would ike to focus on two other quotes from the interview,

Political matters are a history of settling scores among the big families and the big parties [of Iraq]. That’s what it’s like there. They’ve had 6,000 years of violence. So, finally, the daily death toll in Baghdad and in the country doesn’t interest them so much. And if you don’t understand that, you don’t understand anything. That’s one of the mistakes the Americans made. They understood nothing about what has happened in the country over such a long period of time.

Politics means settling scores among the big families and the big parties. That is quite different from what the United States hoped for: politicians fighting for a united Iraq.

And the next quote of  Kouchner is also illustrative of the tail wagging the dog.

They’re [= Kurdish leaders] in Baghdad, and that’s really something. These are people I’ve known for 30 years, who were in the mountains fighting for independence, and now they’re defending unity as Iraqi nationalists. That’s amazing. It’s very promising and at the same time stunning.

Kouchner is stunned that the Kurdish leaders are in Baghdad in support of Nuri al-Maliki’s government.

May be it is stunning but it is also very pragmatic, strategically speaking. Give sufficient support to the central government to keep it alive but not enough to make it strong.

In the mean time, set everything in place for an, if not formal then at least practical, autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq.

The Kurdish leaders probably do realize that going to fast in the direction of a semi-autonomous region would incite Turkey and possibly the United States to invade and attack the Kurdish region.

And while the big families and big parties are settling their scores and while the Kurds are creating their semi-autonomous region, the United States force is giving their lives to buy times for the Iraqi politicians to … what was it again?

And the daily death toll (of U.S. and Iraqi people) doesn’t interest them so much.

I wonder how this will reported by David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker in their report to U.S. Congress

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs

• Iraqi Kurds seek independence, with indicators: High Impact / Undesirable; Almost certainly.
• Iraqi Kurds support political Iraq’s central government, with indicators: High Impact / Desirable; Even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor …

(more…)

Newsvine featured a column, Bush Plan to Nuke America, Everything is in Place (link)

The nuking of America by our own President now appears to be a done deal as we approach 9/11 ‘07

And the author, Jimmy Swindell, writes,

Of course I realized at the time this was a rather far fetched scenario

Well, not as far fetched as his name but anyway, far fetchedness is the liberty of columnists creating scenarios.
I realized I had also developed a rather far fetched scenario, called the ‘Dick Cheney end-game’. It was tucked away in some comments at this Newsvine seed, The New York Times Calls For Iraq Withdrawal (link).

The Dick Cheney end-game scenario

First, let start with the ‘regular’ scenario regarding martial law in the US.

1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events

(1.a) a catastrophic emergency; one or more major attacks at U.S soil (dirty bomb, chemical wmd, etc.) by Al Qaeda

(1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf)

(1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US

2. President Bush invokes National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons.

3. No US Presidential elections in 2008

OK, quite reasonable in a ‘War on Terror‘. From this base scenario it is easy to come up with the Dick Cheney end-game.

It is more or less the same as the above one but with a few minor changes.

1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events

(1.a) a very specific catastrophic emergency; President Bush is assasinated by Al-Qaeda or … (Conspiracy Theorists are allowed to fill in the dots)

(1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf)

(1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US

2. VP Dick Cheney becomes POTUS

3. The first act of President Cheney is to nvoke the National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons.

4. No US Presidential elections in 2008

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above scenarios see the following new OEIs

United States proclaims martial law, with indicators: red, even chance
United States cancels 2008 elections, with indicators: red, even chance

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Reuters reported that Ahmadinejad may visit Iraq (link).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accepted an invitation to visit neighboring Iraq [ … ]

In this Reuters report one can find some intriguing observations,

With Shi’ite Muslims now also in power in Baghdad, ties have strengthened between the two oil-rich states [ … ]

[T]he two old foes, despite their mutual accusations, have a shared interest in ending the violence in Iraq. Iran wants a friendly government running a stable country while a secure Iraq would enable the United States to pull out.

This could give the following scenario,

United States forces are fighting in Iraq to give the central government (ie Nuri al-Maliki) the time to forge stronger ties between Iran and Iraq. Or, in other words, the United States is doing all the work with as a result a stronger position with more influence in the Gulf region, and therefore control of strategical important oil flows, for their old foe Iran (ie. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). Not a happy prospect.

What to do? - from a US perspective

Try to prevent this strengthening of ties between Iran and Iraq.

Difficult enough with both countries having Shi’ite Muslims in power and sharing a mutual interest in cooperation.

If that doesn’t work out, an option could be to leave the ‘management’ of Iraq to Iran and make sure that Iran is doing what the US wants.

This is also not that easy. Two generic options:

A friendly approach. Talk with Iran, help them develop economically and make sure that the flow of oil keeps coming to the West.

The other option is to force Iran in doing things the US way.  Bomb Iran, if necessary with nuclear bombs, and move the troops from Bagdad to Tehran. Again, not very easy and a hard sell to the people of the US / worldwide.

Unless, Iran is that much demonized that global opinion does ‘understand’ why Iran is attacked and approves of it.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs,

• Iran and Iraq will strengthen their ties, with indicators; yellow, even chance
• Iran wants a friendly government running a stable Iraq, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• Iraq secure and stable would enable the United States to pull out, with indicators: green, probably, likely
• United States reporting negative behavior of Iran will increase, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

IPS reported IRAQ: Between the Two Rivers, Lack of Water Kills (link).

The collapse of Iraq’s infrastructure has created a worsening water crisis that is killing untold numbers of Iraqis.

The following causal loop diagram is based on the article and relates the situation to the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Iraq’s people support the government of Iraq, with indicators: green, even chance
• Iraq’s people support the United States military, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq shows satisfying progress of the 18 benchmarks, with indicators: green, unlikely
• Iraq’s government is a stable regime, with indicators: green, remotely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Associated Press reported, Gadhafi Son Warns of More Europe Attacks (link)

The son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, had given an interview to the Austria Pers Agency.

Some relevant statements by Gadhafi as reported by AP.

First,

Radical Islam is making deeper inroads into Europe through young, disaffected Muslims who are receptive to the message of militancy.

In a previous post Emigration from the UK was discussed. One of the main reasons for emigration from the UK was immigration of others into the UK; a clear sign that integration of immigrants has not been successful.

This observation is supported by a report of the NYPD which says,

Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially. (link)

The above statement of NYPD is added to the KGI-Monitor as an Open-Ended Issue with indicators: orange, almost certainly.

The second statement of Gadhafi,

Islamic extremists are certain to carry out more terrorist attacks in Europe, and any country that engages itself militarily in Iraq or Afghanistan is a likely target.

This is translated as OEI, Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. with indicators: orange,  almost certainly.

The third statement of Gadhafi,

The situation in Pakistan is very dangerous given the consequences if Islamic extremists take power in the country, which has nuclear weapons.

The OEI, Pakistan is an Islamic state, is changed to, Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state with indicators: red, even chance.

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

NY Times reported, U.S. Weighing Terrorist Label for Iran Guards  (link).

The relevant statement,

Bush administration is preparing to declare that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is a foreign terrorist organization, senior administration officials said Tuesday.

IDEA of Impact on Open-Ended Isues

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