Turkish raids on PKK rebels in Northern Iraq
Turkish warplanes bombed suspected PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) bases in the “regions of Zap, Hakurk and Avasin as well as the Qandil mountains” in northern Iraq.
Estimated Assessment
IDEA-ing of the relevant Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:
| KGI Kurdistan - Turkish Kurds in Iraq | Desirability | Importance | Volatility | Probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq | Undesirable | Medium | Medium | High | High |
| Iraq restrains PKK’s activities | Desirable | Medium | Low | Low | High |
| United States restrains PKK’s activities in Iraq | Desirable | Medium | Low | Low | High |
| Turkey will invade the Kurdish region of Iraq | Undesirable | High | High | High | High |
| Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attack Iraq | Ambivalent | High | Low | High | Medium |
| Turkish raids on PKK rebels in Northern Iraq are approved and supported by the United States | Ambivalent | High | Low | High | High |
Background Timeline