Integral Dynamics

From the News Desk (BBC,  IRNA, Reuters)

Russia has delivered the first shipment of nuclear fuel — uranium 235 stored in modules of several fuel rods — to Iran’s Bushehr atomic power station.

A total of 163 main and 17 reserve assemblies of U-235 enriched to 3.62 percent would be delivered for the first loading.

Estimated Assessment

IDEA-ing of Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:

In Context

On Sunday, Tehran Times featured the story “Iran says ME tensions will propel oil price to $120” (link).

According to Nasser Sudani, vice chairman of the Energy Committee of Majlis (Iran’s parliament),

Oil price would rise to 120 dollars if tensions in the Middle East continued.

And today, AFP featured the story, “Oil surges above 93 dollars in Asian trade” (link).

According to David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney

“Geopolitical tensions, issues regarding tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels… those sort of factors have added to oil prices.”

The reasons given for the increase of the price of oil are the ‘usual suspects’, like:

Firstly, geopolitical tensions, for instance, caused by

• health of the US economy
• strength of the US dollar
• Middle East tensions, consisting of fear of:
  • Turkey will invade the Kurdish region of Iraq
  • War between United States and Iran
  • United States imposes unilateral new sanctions on Iran
  • United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran
  • Military threats against Syria
  • Military threats against Lebanon

Secondly, an increase of global demand, for instance,

• growing demand of China and India
• cold season demand
• stockpiling by the US and other Western countries
• speculation by traders

Third, a decrease of global production and supply of oil, for instance, caused by

• war in Iraq
• unrest in the oil sector in Nigeria
• hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
• declining oil fields in Mexico
  (see also Key Global Issue: Mexico)
• the impossibility of quickly increasing (on-demand) oil supply.

Also on Monday, Russia Today featured the story, “Oil price: the US$ 100 barrel on its way?” (link) 

According to a forecast of Aleksey Kudrin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia:

“The oil price is very high and this affects political events and some speculations. But if we talk about the longer term of 15 to 20 years, for which we’ve planned the economy, a more realistic price would be between US$ 50 and US$ 60. I say this because if the price goes too high, it will slow down economic growth and also spur the use of alternative energy sources.”

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Translated into most relevant Open-Ended Issues (OEIs) it gives the following table.

Causal Relations

The above factors with there causal relations placed in a causal map gives the following picture.

However, it is good to realize that not all causal relations between the OEIs are of the same order.

For instance, how strong is the impact of geopolitical tensions on the global oil price. Opinions will differ and are highly subjective. According to Big Mike’s Contrarian Investing Blog the relation isn’t that important.

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Updates

2007-10-31: Russia Today article added with implications for the causal loops map.

Daily Telegraph / News.com.au reported, Russian carrier jets flying again (link).

RUSSIA has started flying jets again from its only operational aircraft carrier after a two-year break, state-run television reported today in the latest show of the country’s reviving military capability

Previous ’shows’ of Russia’s reviving military capability are,

(2007-08-17) “Today, August 17 at 00:00 hours, 14 strategic bombers took to the air from seven airfields across the country, along with support and refueling aircraft … From today such patrols will be carried out on a regular basis.” — Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (link)

(2007-08-17) Russia and China executed joint military exercises on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. (link)

(2007-06-25) “Everybody knows that the Balkans and the Black Sea region were of special interest to us.”
“Russia, with its increasing potentials, is coming back to this region. This is an obvious fact [ … ] This is in the interest of Russia but also of our partners.”
Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of a summit of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) (link)

(2007-04-26) President Vladimir Putin froze Russia’s commitments under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) arms control pact. “It makes no sense for Russia to observe the pact when NATO signatories are ignoring it.
“(NATO countries) are … building up military bases on our borders and, what’s more, they are also planning to station elements of anti-missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.”
“In this connection, I consider it expedient to declare a moratorium on Russia’s implementation of this treaty — in any case, until all countries of the world have ratified and started to strictly implement it.”
– Vladimir Putin, Russian President, in final state-of-nation address (link)

Update: (2007-08-21) 14 Russian jet bombers carried out strategic exersices in international airspace off the coast of Norway. - It is the first time since the end of the cold war that the Russian military activity in the North has been at this high a level. — Per Egil Rygg, Bodoe Wing Commander (link)

Update: (2007-08-17) “RAF Typhoons from Numbers 3(F) and XI Squadrons launched to shadow a Russian Bear-H aircraft over the North Atlantic Ocean.” 

All these events signal one thing: Russia is preparing for war

And a country that is preparing for war needs a strong leader and a united homeland.

Two important issues that need to be taken care of.

The one strong leader in Russia is of course Vladimir Putin. But Putin is nearing the 2nd term (= formaly the last term) of his presidency, the question is: Will he stay or will he go?

And a united homeland is hard to create and even harder to maintain in a democracy.

One solution that takes care of both issues is to rewind democratic measure and replace them with more dictator style measures.

IDEA of Open-Ended Issues

Based on the above I see the following new OEIs

• Russia is preparing for war, with indicators: red, probably, likely
• Russia is becoming a police state, with indicators: orange, probably, likely
• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will stay on, with indicators: orange, probably, likely

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor. (more…)

Associated Press reported that Russia Sends Long Bombers Back on Patrol (link).

Two important statements

Russia and China executed war games on Russia’s soil near the Urals Mountain city of Chelyabinsk.
The war games involved some 6,000 troops from both countries, along with soldiers from four ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin placed strategic bombers back on long-range patrol.
This is for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Both statements signal a growing tension between the united States and Russia, especially regarding Central Asia.

IDEA of this story resulted in the following Open-Ended Issues,

• Central Asia contains vast hydrocarbon resources, with indicators: yellow, almost certainly
• China’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia’s influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance
• Russia increases its military spending, with indicators: orange, almost certainly
• United States‘ influence in Central Asia grows, with indicators: orange, even chance

This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor.

(more…)

Yes, I think Tony Blair is.

In fact, I think he is the best person for this job. I have read many very negative comments on this issue giving reasons that he is the wrong man. 

For instance,

“War Criminal” turned “Peace Envoy”. 

Tony Blair and George Bush have done more than anyone to create instability in the region. They invaded (illegally) Afghanistan and Iraq. Tony Blair didn’t do anything to defuse the crisis in the Lebanon last year. He should be brought in front of the International Criminal Court The Hague to stand trial for War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity.

Why should the Arabs and Palestinians listen to him? 

They will not accept him. He is regarded as pro-American. He is regarded as pro-Israel. He does not understand Arab politics, he doesn’t have a clue on the nuances or value systems involved to deal with the people of the region. He is deeply unpopular in the region.

 What exactly are his credentials?

How has he demonstrated that he would be a fair and honest broker. To be a peace envoy you have to be on the same distance from both parties, something Blair isn’t.

Tony Blair is a self-serving publicity seeker. 

His one and only aim in life is to be famous. He is not right for any job that may involve the right thing or the best thing for anyone other than Tony Blair. 

He sure does have an ‘image problem’ with many people and no amount of pr spin will solve that. Let us have a closer look at these objections. (more…)