Day of Reckoning — Pat Buchanan
Book OverviewDay of Reckoning — Pat Buchanan |
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| DAY OF RECKONING; How Hubris, Ideology, and Greed Are Tearing America Apart; by Patrick J. Buchanan, 294 pp. Thomas Dunne Books/St. Martin’s Press. (more…) December 17, 2007Palestine a viable state and at peace with Israel? — update1Ninety international delegations from Israel, Palestine, United States, European Union, Russia, Britain, Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, United Nations, and other world’s powers are attending the one-day Conference of Donors for a Palestinian State in Paris to mobilize political support and to agree on an aid package worth billions of dollars to stabilise the Palestinian economy and give political impetus to the newly relaunched peace process with Israel. Global donors pledge 7.4 bln US dollars for Palestinians. Estimated Assessment IDEA-ing of Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:
Background Timeline Turkish raids on PKK rebels in Northern Iraq
Estimated Assessment IDEA-ing of the relevant Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:
Background Timeline December 16, 2007Are United States and NATO failing in Afghanistan?The NY Times reported on Sunday, December 16, 2007,
IDEA-ing of the relevant Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:
Bolivia regions declare autonomySunday, 16 December 2007 — In Bolivia, three provinces have declared autonomy, protesting against constitutional reforms agreed by the government of President Evo Morales. Another region, Tarija, is expected to follow suit. IDEA-ing of Open-Ended Issues gives the following Properties Table:
November 5, 2007Pakistan’s Emergency - United States in need of a Plan BOn Saturday 3 November, in Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, suspending the Constitution, blacking out all independent television news reports and filling the streets of the capital with police officers and soldiers. Stolberg and Cooper wrote in the New york Times,
And the situation is even worse than “risking civil instability in a country with nuclear weapons“. As Stanley Kurtz wrote in the NRO,
The United States is in a very difficult position. The worst case scenario of this emergency would go something like this:
And possible,
What to do? U. S.’ Plan A would be something like this: Get back to a ‘normal’ situation in Pakistan as soon as possible. The objectives formulated as a kind of reversal of the above worst case scenario.
But what if Plan A does not work. And chances are probably / likely that this plan will not work. Musharraf is riding a hungry man-eating tiger. And Islamism has been growing in Pakistan for years increasing the risk that Pakistan becomes an extremists / anti western Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Plan B Plan B is not, I repeat, NOT to nuke Pakistan. The primary objectives of Plan B would be: (a) Get Al Qaeda (b) Denuclearize Pakistan Daveed Gartenstein-Ross wrote in the Weekly Standard,
And may be he is - afterall - right. It created the situation that Al-Qaeda’s global leadership with possibly Osama bin Laden is (probably) based in Waziristan. Therefore to get Al Qaeda, the U.S. government has to be invited by Musharraf (as an emergent and extraordinary measure) to have the U.S. military seal off Wazirstan and close in on Al-Qaeda. And to denuclearize Pakistan – meaning: getting rid of the nuclear weapons of Pakistan — it would be best if all nuclear weapons would be completely gone, second best that these weapons would be under U.S. control. Pakistan could ‘voluntarily’ sell it nuclear weapons to the United States for a good price and for a nuclear umbrella of the United States in case India or China or … (fill in the dots) would threaten or attack Pakistan with nuclear weapons. And to complete this removeal of nuclear weapons out of Pakistan, it would also mean the removal of the capability of making nuclear weapons. It means that Pakistan’s nuclear experts get an offer they can’t refuse. A very rude offer would be: either you move to the United States and work for us or we move you to Guantanamo Bay with our special rendition program. I trust the US planners can come up with some better, more friendly proposal. The problem, as always, is: How do you get someone else to do what you want him to do? How do you get Musharraf to cooperate with Plan B? I don’t have answers to that question but I suppose that if the U.S. government really really really wants this done it can convince those in power. October 29, 2007Global Oil Price will increaseOn Sunday, Tehran Times featured the story “Iran says ME tensions will propel oil price to $120” (link). According to Nasser Sudani, vice chairman of the Energy Committee of Majlis (Iran’s parliament),
And today, AFP featured the story, “Oil surges above 93 dollars in Asian trade” (link). According to David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney
The reasons given for the increase of the price of oil are the ‘usual suspects’, like: Firstly, geopolitical tensions, for instance, caused by
Secondly, an increase of global demand, for instance,
Third, a decrease of global production and supply of oil, for instance, caused by
Also on Monday, Russia Today featured the story, “Oil price: the US$ 100 barrel on its way?” (link) According to a forecast of Aleksey Kudrin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia:
IDEA of Open-Ended Issues Translated into most relevant Open-Ended Issues (OEIs) it gives the following table.
Causal Relations The above factors with there causal relations placed in a causal map gives the following picture. However, it is good to realize that not all causal relations between the OEIs are of the same order. For instance, how strong is the impact of geopolitical tensions on the global oil price. Opinions will differ and are highly subjective. According to Big Mike’s Contrarian Investing Blog the relation isn’t that important. ~~~~~~~~ Updates 2007-10-31: Russia Today article added with implications for the causal loops map. October 23, 2007Key Global Issue: MexicoBloomberg featured a story how ‘Weak Mexican Peso Shows Oil Threatens Growth, Surplus‘ (link).
Some tidbits:
And government finances are needed to keep Mexico in a healthy state: a healthy economy, a stable political situation, and good security for all. Well, the economy isn’t that healthy as the title of Bloomberg article shows. The political situation is also problematic. One example from many: on Monday, 2007-09-10,
And security is certainly problematic with Mexico
The war on drugs is an expensive war. The Mexican ambassador to the United States said today,
As a result of these problems, Mexicans migrate, legal and illegal, to the United States.
Agreed, Mexico has some problems but to call it a Key Global Issue (KGI) and put it in the same league as the war in Iraq or the nuclear programme controversy with Iran seems a bit strong. it is, unless one looks at the integral dynamics of the situation. (See causal map with this article). If Mexico’s economy deteriorates, as well as the security and political situation, then the number of Mexicans emigrating, legal or illegal, to the United States will grow strongly. At a certain level, the United States will try to stop this flow of immigrants and this could possible result in a border war between Mexico and the United States. And in this scenario we are talking a real KGI. IDEA of Open-Ended Issues Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs
September 13, 2007IDEA - Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bombThe big worry for the United States goverment is that Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb. And this worry sets the context for some of the stories of today. First Iran Jerusalem Post reports, US to attack Iran in 8-10 months (link) and Fox News reports, U.S. Officials Begin Crafting Iran Bombing Plan (link) The chance of a third round of US sanctions is slim. Then, there are the Non-Aligned Movement nations who on Tuesday
And finally, according to FOX News,
The reason Germany gave was,
Not unreasonable, Japan has the same problems according to Japan Today,
There is one big difference between the NAM nations position and Germany’s position as perceived by the US government. Germany’s refusal to sanction a third round,
Based on the above, my estimation is that the chance that the United States will attack Iran is almost certainly. Secondly, Syria It seems that Syria is or could become the new player on the nuclear block. Thursday 2007-09-06, there was an alleged violation of Syria’s airspace by the Israel Air Force in the early hours (link). Why did Israel attack Syria? Was it a real offensive action or just testing the response of the Syrian military. Today, Reuters reported, U.S. officials confirm Israel strike on Syria (link). It was a real strike and according to the article it was probably to stop weapons being moved from Iran to Hezbollah. But it could even be worse.
Geopolitical this is highly undesirable. The United States won’t tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon and the same goes for Syria. My estimation is that the chance of Syria having nuclear material is unlikely and therefore also the change that United States will attack Syriais remote. Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb The more nuclear stuff is around, the bigger the change that al-Quaeda or some other terorist group obtains it to create a dirty bomb. According to Mohamed ElBaradei, United Nations chief weapons inspector (link),
I agree with ElBaradei, in the short term the chance that Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb is even but in the long term it will be more likely. Interesting is the possible causal relationship between ‘United States bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities’ and ‘Al-Qaeda obtains a dirty bomb’. It could well be that after such a bombing disgrunted Iranians will sell or even will give away nuclear stuff to al-Qaeda operatives. IDEA of Open-Ended Issues Based on the above I see the following impact on OEIs
August 23, 2007IDEA - The ‘Dick Cheney end-game’Newsvine featured a column, Bush Plan to Nuke America, Everything is in Place (link)
And the author, Jimmy Swindell, writes,
Well, not as far fetched as his name but anyway, far fetchedness is the liberty of columnists creating scenarios. The Dick Cheney end-game scenario First, let start with the ‘regular’ scenario regarding martial law in the US. 1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events (1.a) a catastrophic emergency; one or more major attacks at U.S soil (dirty bomb, chemical wmd, etc.) by Al Qaeda (1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf) (1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US 2. President Bush invokes National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons. 3. No US Presidential elections in 2008 OK, quite reasonable in a ‘War on Terror‘. From this base scenario it is easy to come up with the Dick Cheney end-game. It is more or less the same as the above one but with a few minor changes. 1. Between now and a year two (more or less) simultaneous events (1.a) a very specific catastrophic emergency; President Bush is assasinated by Al-Qaeda or … (Conspiracy Theorists are allowed to fill in the dots) (1.b) a serious offensive move by Iran against the US or US interests / allies (launching missiles in the direction of Israel, Europe, or even the US and / or attacking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf) (1.c) and as an extra wildcard: a third party (North Korea, Venezuela, or Russia does something nasty to make the situation even more dire for the US 2. VP Dick Cheney becomes POTUS 3. The first act of President Cheney is to nvoke the National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and as the uncontested ‘ decider’, decides to attack Iran with possible nuclear weapons. 4. No US Presidential elections in 2008 IDEA of Open-Ended Issues Based on the above scenarios see the following new OEIs United States proclaims martial law, with indicators: red, even chance This gives the following Key Global Issues Monitor. Powered by WordPress |



