Integral Dynamics

August 4, 2007

Key Global Issues Monitor - most recent version

Filed under: Uncategorized — @ 8:06 am

This is the Key Global Issues Monitor of 2008-06-07 (Saturday).
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Global

KGI Global Economy	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Global economy is healthy	Desirable	X-High	High	Low	High
Globalization reverses to protectionism	Undesirable
Per capita income rises	Desirable
Global economic growth increases substantially	Desirable
Global trade grows	Desirable
Global economy becomes less energy intensive	Desirable
The price of gold will rise	Neutral
Global power shift from the producers of goods and services toconsumers	Neutral	Medium	Medium	Medium	Moderate

KGI Global Demography	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Population increases	Undesirable
Life expectation increases	Desirable

KGI Global (Public) Health	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Outbreak of a global flu pandemic	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	High

KGI Energy	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Global oil prices will rise to US $200 / barrel	Undesirable
Global oil supplies will not be able to keep up with global oil demand	Undesirable
Global oil demand increases	Undesirable
Global oil supply drops	Undesirable
Bio-fuel subsidies should be repealed	Desirable	High	Medium	Medium	Medium
Bio-fuel subsidies have encouraged the shift of land from producing foodinto energy	Undesirable	High	High	High	Medium

KGI Nuclear Proliferation	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
North Korea is helping Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb	Undesirable

KGI Climate Change	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Global warming will have a negative impact on global economy	Undesirable
Global warming will make Atlantic Hurricanes even worse in future	Undesirable
In Brazil, illegal logging devastates the southern edge of the rain forest	Undesirable

KGI Water Scarcity	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey is the source of much of the water in the Middle East	Undesirable
Iraq faces serious water shortages	Undesirable
Israel faces serious water shortages	Undesirable
Jordan faces serious water shortages	Undesirable
Syria faces serious water shortages	Undesirable
‘Water war’ between United States and Canada	Undesirable	High	Medium	Medium	Medium

KGI Food Crisis	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
There is a food crisis	Undesirable

KGI Human Trafficking	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Child Trafficking from Africa to Europe is increasing	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Maritime Piracy	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Pirate attacks increase worldwide	Undesirable

Islam / Islamism	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
World survival is at stake if Muslims and Christians can not make peacewith each other	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate
The West is besieging Islam	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate
Islam is besieging the West	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate
Islamic terrorism – particularly in the Sunni world – is caused bySalafism	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate
Salafism is one of the fastest growing religious movements in theworld	Ambivalent	High	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Salafism represents the only ‘pure’ Islam	Neutral	Medium	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Salafism is based on a doctrine rejected by the majority of Muslims	Neutral
Islam oppresses women	Undesirable
Islam needs to reform	Desirable	X-High	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Muslims are a deprived and underdeveloped minority in the globalcommunity	Neutral

KGI War On Terror	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
The “war on terrorism” is not a war on terrorism at all but ajustification for the United States to consolidate and extend its global supremacy
Al-Qaeda obtains a so-called dirty bomb	Undesirable	XX-High	High	X-High	High
Al-Qaeda’s global leadership is based in Waziristan, Pakistan
Osama bin Laden is still alive
Al-Qaeda will take over Iraq	Undesirable	High	Medium	Low	High
United States will (unilaterally) attack terrorist targets in Pakistan	Undesirable

Region / Nation-State

Middle East	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran dominates the Middle East	Undesirable	X-High	High	Medium	High
Iran ‘makes’ the whole Arab Middle East Shiite	Undesirable	X-High	High	Medium	High
Iran takes control of the oil in the Persian Gulf	Undesirable	X-High	High	Medium	High
In the Middle East, proliferation of nuclear technology increases towardsa dangerous level	Undesirable	X-High	High	Medium	High

KGI Afghanistan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Afghanistan is a failed state	Undesirable	X-High	Medium	X-High	High
The war in Afghanistan against the Taliban can be won by the United States/ NATO	Desirable	X-High	High	Medium	High
The NATO campaign to whittle down Taliban’s guerrilla units in Afghanistanwill last for years	Undesirable	High	Low	High	High
The Afghan army won’t be able to manage security till 2015	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	Medium

KGI Iraq	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iraq is sovereign	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Iraq is secure	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Iraq’s government is a stable regime	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Iraq’s political reconcilation on national level improves	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Iraq’s people support the government of Iraq	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Iraq splits up into three ethnic/religious regions	Ambivalent	High	High	High	Moderate
Iraq ends up in a regional war	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate

KGI Iraq - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States / British invasion of Iraq is illegal under internationallawy	xxxx	High	Low	X-High	High
United States / British military are committing war crimes in Iraq	xxxx	High	Low	X-High	High
Iraq’s people support the United States military
Iraq secure and stable would enable the United States to pull out
Iraq shows satisfying progress of the 18 benchmarks
Iraq lawmakers will pass the Hydrocarbons Law (aka Oil Law”
United States will stay involved with Iraq
United States’ cost of the war in Iraq increases	Undesirable
United States’ domestic debate over war in Iraq

KGI Iraq - Miscellaneous	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Australia withdraws its troops from Iraq	Ambivalent	Medium	Medium	X-High	High
Saudi Arabia is arming Sunni militias in Iraq	Undesirable
Syria allows suicide bombers to cross into Iraq	Undesirable

KGI Iran	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran has a stable regime	Desirable	Medium	Low	High	High
In Iran, the general population is “hostages” of the mullahs	Undesirable	Medium	Low	High	High
Iran’s economy is healthy	Desirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	High
Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	High
Iran is a client state of China	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	Moderate
Iran is a client state of Russia	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	Moderate

KGI Iran - Energy	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran’s oil revenues are sustainable	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	High
Iran’s oil supply is sustainable and will improve	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	High
Iran becomes a natural gas-exporting country	Desirable	High	Medium	High	High

KGI Iran - Nuclear Proliferation	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran is working on a military nuclear program	Undesirable	X-High	Medium	High	High
Iran is working on an uranium enrichment programme	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
United Nations Security Council will approve a new round of sanctions against Iran	Ambivalent	Medium	Medium	Low	Moderate

KGI Iran - Iraq	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran is contributing to worsening security in Iraq	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	High
Iran and Iraq will strengthen their ties	Desirale	Medium	Medium	High	Moderate
Iran wants a friendly government running a stable Iraq	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Iran wants the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to succeed	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	Moderate
Iran will take over Iraq	Undesirable	High	Medium	Low	High

KGI Iran - Terrorism	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iran is a state sponsor of terror	Undesirable	High	High	X-High	High
Iran is able to restrain armed Shiite groups in Iraq	Desirable	High	Medium	High	High
Iran is arming insurgents in Afghanistan	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	High
Iran supports Hamas	Undesirable	Mewdium	Medium	High	Hgh
Iran supports Hezbollah	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Iran is planning / backing terrorist strike on Europe	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	High
Lebanon is a full-fledged Iranian satellite state	Undesirable	Medium	High	High	High
Iran will attack Israel	Undesirable	High	Low	Low	High

KGI Iran - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States is working towards regime change in Iran	Ambivalent	High	High	High	High
United States won’t tolerate Iran having nuclear weapons	Desirable	X-High	High	X_High	High
United States will act diplomatically with Iran	Desirable	High	High	High	High
United States will act military against Iran	Undesirable	X-High	High	Medium	High

KGI Kurdistan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Kurdistan is a recognized nation-state

KGI Kurdistan - Iraqi Kurds	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Iraqi Kurds seek independence
Iraqi Kurds support political Iraq’s central government
Iraqi Kurds participate in army of Iraq
Importance of Kurds’ support for Iraq government
Importance of Kurds’ support for U.S. government

KGI Kurdistan - Turkish Kurds in Iraq	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkish PKK is active from North of Iraq	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Iraq restrains PKK’s activities	Desirable	Medium	Low	Low	High
United States restrains PKK’s activities in Iraq	Desirable	Medium	Low	Low	High
Turkey will invade the Kurdish region of Iraq	Undesirable	High	High	High	High
Turkish government is pressured by United States gvt to not attackIraq	Ambivalent	High	Low	High	Moderate
Turkish raids on PKK rebels in Northern Iraq are approved and supported bythe United States	Ambivalent	High	Low	High	High

KGI Kurdistan - Iranian Kurds	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Kurdish separatist terrorists of PJAK are holed up in the Iraqi Kurdishmountains and are using bases there to launch attacks inside Iran	Undesirable
United States supports PJAK	Undesirable

KGI Israel	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Israel has a right to exist	Desirable
Israel’s existence is endangered	Undesirable
Israel is a democracy	Desirable
Israel discriminates against its Arab / Palestinian inhabitants	Undesirable

KGI Israel - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Israel needs the support of the United States	Desirable
The primary explanation for U.S. backing of Israel is the unmatched powerof the Israel lobby	Desirable
United States will induce the government of Israel to moderate itsbehaviour	Undesirable
United States is the only one capable of inducing the government of Israelto moderate its behaviour	Desirable
United States will induce the government of Israel to moderate itsbehaviour	Undesirable
Many Israeli government actions, including the expansion of West Banksettlements and the invasion of Lebanon, reflect repressive policies that do not deserve United States’ endorsement	Desirable
United States and Israel their national interests march hand in hand	Undesirable
United States and Israel share common values	Desirable
United States gives unconditional support to Israel for its governments’policies	Undesirable

KGI Egypt	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Gamal Mubarak becomes president of Egypt	Undesirable	Medium	High	Very Low	High
Egypt is about to implode	Undesirable
Egypt becomes an Islamic state	Undesirable	Very High	High	Medium	High
The Muslim Brotherhood has very limited support among the Egyptianmasses	Desirable	High	Low	High	High
Egypt wants nuclear power	Undesirable
Egypt supports Hamas	Undesirable

KGI Jordan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Jordan wants nuclear power	Undesirable

KGI Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Arab-Israeli Conflict	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Palestine	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Palestine is a viable Nation-State	Desirable	High	High	Medium	High
Palestine’s economy is healthy	Desirable	High	Medium	Low	High
Palestine is secure	Desirable	High	Medium	Low	High

KGI Palestine -Israel	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Israel and Palestine have peace	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
Gaza becomes a city state (like Singapore)	Undesirable	Medium	Low	Low	High
The gross mistreatment of the Palestinians in Gaza is a terrible humanrights crime	Undesirable	High	High	X-High	High

KGI Syria	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Syria gives intelligence and tactical support to the Hezbollah militias in Lebanon	Undesirable	High	High	High	High
Syria harbors the operational leadership of Hamas	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Syria obtaines nuclear technology and nuclear material	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	Medium
United States won’t tolerate Syria having nuclear weapons	Desirable	High	High	High	Medium
United States will act military against Syria	Ambivalent	Medium	Medium	Medium	High
Syria incorporates Lebanon to become greater Syria	Undesirable	High	Medium	Low	High
Syria is subject to Iranian control	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	Medium

KGI Syria - Israel	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Israel and Syria are at peace	Desirable	High	Medium	High	Moderate
Israel will attack Syria	Undesirable	High	Medium	Medium	High

KGI Lebanon	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
In Lebanon, there is a (silent) civil war	Undesirable
Hezbollah has gained control of Lebanon. r	Undesirable	High	High	High	High;

KGI Lebanon - Israel	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Israel and Lebanon are at war	Undesirable
Hezbollah will attack Israel	Undesirable	High	High	High	High

KGI Yemen	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Yemen becomes a failed state	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	High

Europe	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
EU / Europe is in a deep identity crisis

KGI Europe (Security)	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Europe is less dependent on the United States for its security

KGI Europe (Demography)	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Europe is in (relative) decline	Undesirable
Europe’s population is declining	Undesirable
Europe’s population is declining - in absolute terms	Undesirable
Europe’s population is declining - in relative terms	Undesirable
Europe’s identity is essentially Christian
In Europe, Christianity is in decline
Europe allows more legal immigration	Undesirable

KGI Europe - Energy	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Europe’s energy consumption is rapidly rising	Undesirable	X-High	High	X-High	High
Germany shuts down all its nuclear reactors by 2020	Undesirable	High	Low	Medium	High

KGI Europe (The Position of Muslims in Europe)	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Islam tries to impose its rules on Europe	Undesirable
European Muslims are law-abiding citizens with little sympathy forterrorists	Undesirable
Europe has failed to integrate second and third generation immigrants into society, both economically and socially	Undesirable
Radicalization among young Muslims is growing rapidly	Undesirable
Europe will see more terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists	Undesirable

KGI EU (European Union)	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Some EU states will in 20 years form a political union	Ambivalent	High	Low	Medium	Low
EU has contempt for its European constituency	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
EU lacks political transparency	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High

KGI Estonia - Russia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Conflict between Estonia and Russia over Russian minority in Estonia	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High

KGI Chechnya	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Georgia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Georgia becomes member of NATO	Desirable	High	High	High	High
Georgia becomes member of EU	Desirable	High	High	Low	Moderate
Georgia recognizes the independence of Abkhazia	Desirable	High	High	Low	Moderate
Georgia and Abkhazia have an armed conflict (= Civil War)	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate
NATO becomes involved in the armed conflict (= Civil War) between Georgiaand Abkhazia	Undesirable	High	High	Low	Moderate

KGI Serbia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Serbia becomes a member of the EU (European Union)

KGI Kosovo	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Kosovo is independent	Undesirable
Kosovo becomes a member of the EU (European Union)	Undesirable

KGI Kosovo - Serbia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Serbia reestablishes sovereignty over Kosovo	Ambivalent	High	High	Medium	High
Serbia starts a war when Kosovo declares independence	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate

Serbs in Bosnia become independent	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate
Croats in Herzegovina become official part of Croatia	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate
Albanians in Macedonia become independent	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate

href="http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/TagDetail_2875.aspx" mce_href="http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/TagDetail_2875.aspx" target=_blank>KGI Missile Shield	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States will install a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic
Czech Republic agrees to the deployment of United States missile defence system
Poland agrees to the deployment of United States missile defence system

KGI Ukraine	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Ukraine becomes member of the NATO
Ukraine becomes member of the EU

KGI Russia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Russia increases its military spending	High	Low	Medium	X-High	High
Russia’s influence in Central Asia grows	Ambivalent	High	Low	High	Moderate
Russia’s human rights stuation is becoming worse	Undesirable	medium	Medium	High	High
Russia is becoming a police state	Undesirable	High	Medium	High	High
Russia is preparing for war	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	High
Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will stay on	Undesirable	High	High	High	High
Russia and Belarus will form a union	Ambivalent	Medium	Low	Medium	Low

KGI Russia - Japan - Disputed Waters	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Tensions between Japan and Russia, regarding disputed waters between thetwo countries, are escalating	Undesirable

KGI Russia - Belarus - Union	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Russia and Belarus will form a union

KGI Belarus	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Belarus becomes member of the EU

KGI Turkey	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey is a democracy
Turkey becomes a Islamic / Sunni Muslim republic	Undesirable
Turkey`s ruling AKP party has strong connections to the “gradualist” wing of the Muslim Brotherhood	Undesirable
Turkey`s ruling AKP party is a Hamas sympathizer	Undesirable

KGI Turkey - Israel	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey is one of Israel’s few allies

KGI Turkey - EU	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey will join EU	Ambivalent	High	High	Medium	Low

KGI Turkey - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey and the United States have a good relationship	Desirable	Medium	High	Low	Moderate

KGI Turkey - Kurdistan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Turkey is against the creation of Kurdistan	Undesirable	High	Low	X-High	High

KGI Mediterranean Union	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Mediterranean Union is created	Ambivalent	High	High	High	Moderate

Africa

KGI Angola	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Burundi	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Chad	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Child soldiers are used in Chad	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Sudan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Child soldiers are used in Sudan	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Chad - Sudan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Chad and Sudan are at war	Undesirable	High	High	High	Moderate

KGI Democratic Republic Congo	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Civil War in Democratic Republic Congo	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Child soldiers are used in Congo	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Eritrea	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Ethiopia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Kenya	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Civil war within Kenya	Undesirable	High	High	High	Moderate
Kenya is a key ally of the United States	Desirable	Medium	Medium	High	High

KGI Nigeria	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Republic of the Congo	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Rwanda	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Sierra Leone	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Somalia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Somalia is a training ground for Islamist militants	Undesirable	High	Low	High	High

KGI Sudan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Sudan is a state sponsoring terrorism	Undesirable	Medium	Low	Medium	High

KGI Uganda	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Child soldiers are used in Uganda	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Zimbabwe Crisis	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

Asia

KGI India	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
India becomes permanent menber of the United Nations Security Council	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	Medium
Assam will be an Islamic State	Undesirable	Medium	High	High	High
Assam will secede from India	Undesirable	Medium	High	High	Medium

KGI Pakistan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Pakistan becomes an extrimists Islamic state	Undesirable	X-High	High	High	Moderate
Pakistan can be ‘trusted’ with nuclear weapons	Desirable	X-High	High	High	High
Pakistan’s public opinion is positive about the United States and Musharraf	Desirable	High	Medium	Medium	High
Pakistan’s president is Pervez Musharraf	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	Moderate
United States and Pakistan have a good relationship	Desirable	High	High	Medium	High>
Pakistan cooperates with the United States and NATO in the war against terrorism	Desirable	X-High	High	Medium	High
The Balochistan’s inhabitants are waging a war against the state ofPakistan	Undesirable	High	High	Medium	High

KGI Pakistan - Afghanistan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Pakistan supports the (Afghanistan’s) Taliban finacially	Undesirable	X-High	High	X-High	High
Pakistan supports the (Afghanistan’s) Taliban by accepting Talibans on thePakistani side of the Afghan border	Undesirable	X-High	High	X-High	High

KGI Kashmir Conflict	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Kashmir becomes (more or less) self-governed
War between India and Pakistan because of Kashmir

KGI China	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
China is a responsible “stakeholder” in the current internationalsystem	Desirable	X-High	Medium	Medium	High
China is the “next economic superpower” and will be the largest economy inthe world in 10, 20, or 30 years	Ambivalent	High	High	Medium	High
China competes militarily with the United States	Ambivalent	High	High	Medium	High
China puts its highest priority on growing GDP
China becomes member of the G8
China’s influence in Central Asia grows
China suppresses the Islamist rebels in China’s eastern province ofXinjiang	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	Medium

KGI Taiwan	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Taiwan is a sovereign, self- governing entity	Desirable	Medium	Medium	High	High
Taiwan becomes member of the United Nations	Desirable	Medium	High	Medium	High
Taiwan chooses for unification with China	Ambivalent	Medium	High	Medium	High
China attacks Taiwan	Undesirable	High	Low	low	High
United States will defend Taiwan (against an attack of China)	Ambivalent	X-High	Medium	High	High

- KGI China Tibet	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

- KGI China - India Border Dispute	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
China becomes increasingly assertive in its claims on Indianterritories
China and India have a water war

- KGI China - India ‘Chindia’	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
China and India integrate into ‘Chindia’

KGI North Korea - Nuclear Proliferation	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States and North Korea have a nuclear deal	Desirable	X-High	Medium	High	High

KGI North Korea - South Korea	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Reunification of Soth Korea and North Korea	Desrable	Medium	Low	Medium	High

KGI Malaysia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Ethnic conflict within Malaysia	Undesrable	Medium	Low	High	High

KGI Myanma	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Child soldiers are used in Myanma	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High

KGI Philippines	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence

KGI Sri Lanka	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Civil War within Sri Lanka	Undesirable	High	High	X-High	High
Child soldiers are used in Sri Lanka	Undesirable	High	Medium	X-High	High
Tamils gain independence in Sri Lanka’s north and east	Ambivalent	Medium	High	Medium	High

Americas

KGI United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States’ influence in Central Asia grows
United States is transferring its geopolitical focus from Europe to theMiddle East and Asia
United States president George W. Bush determined to continue the war on Iraq
United States’ army is under increasing stress
United States military casualties will increase
United States economy is healthy	Desirable	High	High	Low	High
United States economy is making up an ever-smaller proportion of worldGDP	Neutral
United States account deficit is “unsustainable” and will result in someglobal economic cataclysm
The consequences of globalization are negative for the United States
The consequences of globalization are negative for the United States
The United States faces increasingly potent, negative political, economicand geopolitical consequences arising from its dependence on foreign energy resources
China will take away most of United States manufacturing
India will take away most of United States high-technology servicesbusiness
George Bush and Dick Cheney are impeached	Desirable	X-High			High
United States government cancels 2008 elections
United States government proclaims martial law
United States government confiscates gold from the American people
United States demographics are moving toward a Hispanic majority
The NAFTA will evolve into the North American Union
The United States dollar is replaced by the Amero
The USA will ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of theSea	Undesirable	Medium	High	Low	High

href="http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/TagDetail_3000.aspx" mce_href="http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/TagDetail_3000.aspx" target=_blank>KGI Mexico	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Mexico’s political situation is stable
Civil War in Mexico
Mexico’s economy is healthy
Mexico stops exporting oil
Mexican guerillas blow up oil and gas pipelines…
Mexico’s government is in a violent three-way war with drug cartels

KGI Mexico - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Mexicans mass migrate (illegally) to the United States	Undesirable	Medium	High	High	High
Mexico and the United States aren engaged in a border war	Undesirable	High	Low	Medium	Hgh
Mexico and the United States aren engaged in a resource conflict regardingwater	Undesirable	Medium	Low	High	Hgh

KGI Cuba - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States invades Cuba	Undesirable	Medium	Low	Medium	Medium
Cubans mass migrate (illegally) to the United States	Undesirable	Medium	Low	Medium	Medium

KGI Venezuela	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Venezuela will withdraw from the World Bank
Venezuela will withdraw from the IMF
Venezuela disrupt its supplies of crude oil and refined petroleum to theUnited States
United States blockades the oil fields of Venezuela
United States and Venezuela have a direct military confrontation

KGI Venezuela - Columbia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Unrest / Conflict / War between Venezuela and Colombia	Undesirable	Medium	Medium	High	High

KGI Brazil	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Brazil becomes permanent menber of the United Nations SecurityCouncil	Desirable	Medium	Medium	Medium	Medium

KGI Bolivia	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
Civil War in Bolivia
Four of Bolivia’s provinces create greater autonomy from the centralgovernment

KGI Bolivia - United States	Desirability	Importance	Volatility	Likelihood	Confidence
United States is contributing to worsening security in Bolivia

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August 4, 2007

Key Global Issues Monitor - most recent version

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